Live Update: Internet Explorer 6
Some members have reported that earlier versions of Internet Explorer interfere with the Live Update. If you experience a timeout error during the Live Update, update to Internet Explorer 6 at Microsoft Download.

Trading Diary
January 22, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow Industrial Average closed unchanged at 10623. A fall below 10600 would be bearish; completing a shooting star candlestick reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.


The Nasdaq Composite closed at 2119, near yesterday's low. Strong volume and a low close signal that sellers are dominant. A re-test of support at 2100 is likely. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


The S&P 500 appears uncomfortable with higher prices, testing back into yesterday's trading range and closing at 1143 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1150. Bearish below 1115 (last Tuesday's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has reached a 10-year record of 86.09% (January 22).

Microsoft results
The software giant reports strong sales but lower earnings for the quarter, after employee stock option charges.

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed lower at 3.97%, ending a 2-day retracement.
The intermediate trend is down. The 2-day retracement is a bearish sign, signaling a fast down-trend.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.

New York (16.43): Spot gold is steady at $410.40.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke through resistance, closing up 19 points at 3339. The break above 3320 signals a likely test of the previous highs at 3425 and 3440. Lower volume signals a lack of enthusiasm from buyers.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.

The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 would signal a reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out after a large divergence. A rise above the previous peak will be a bull signal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

Telstra [TLS]
Last covered October 7, 2003.
Telstra has ranged between 5.00 and 4.70 for the last 6 months. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has held below zero, signaling distribution.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is neutral.

Equivolume shows false breaks above the resistance level at [a], [b] and [c]. False breaks often precede a test of the opposite border of the consolidation range.
A break above or below the range would be a fairly weak signal. It would be sensible to wait for a pull-back that respects the new support/resistance level.

BHP Billiton [BHP]
Last covered November 25, 2003.
After an initial fast up-trend, in the second half of 2003, BHP has slowed to a creeping up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a bearish divergence. A creeping up-trend can either resume the fast up-trend or reverse into a down-trend; a precarious situation.

News Corporation [NCP]
Last covered November 3, 2003.
NCP is ranging between 11.00 and 13.00. Twiggs Money Flow (100) is well below zero, signaling distribution. 
Based on the past record, breakouts should be treated conservatively, as with Telstra.

About the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs

Provide for the worst; 
the best will take care of itself.

~ SA Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).

Incredible Posts: Suggestions

We would like to add more 5-star posts to the Incredible Posts thread.
If you have any suggestions, please post the link
s at 
the Suggestion box.

Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.

Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.