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Trading Diary
January 22, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average closed unchanged at
10623. A fall below 10600 would be bearish; completing a shooting
star candlestick reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite closed at 2119, near
yesterday's low. Strong volume and a low close signal that
sellers are dominant. A re-test of support at 2100 is
likely.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 appears uncomfortable with
higher prices, testing back into yesterday's trading range and
closing at 1143 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1150. Bearish below 1115 (last Tuesday's low).
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1150. Bearish below 1115 (last Tuesday's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will
signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has
reached a 10-year record of 86.09% (January 22).
Microsoft results
The software giant reports strong sales but lower earnings for the quarter, after employee stock option charges.(more)
The software giant reports strong sales but lower earnings for the quarter, after employee stock option charges.(more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed lower at 3.97%, ending a 2-day retracement.
The intermediate trend is down. The 2-day retracement is a bearish sign, signaling a fast down-trend.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed lower at 3.97%, ending a 2-day retracement.
The intermediate trend is down. The 2-day retracement is a bearish sign, signaling a fast down-trend.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.
Gold
New York (16.43): Spot gold is steady at $410.40.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
New York (16.43): Spot gold is steady at $410.40.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke through resistance, closing up 19 points
at 3339. The break above 3320 signals a likely test of the
previous highs at 3425 and 3440. Lower volume signals a lack of
enthusiasm from buyers.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 would signal a
reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out after a large divergence. A rise above the previous peak will be a bull signal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out after a large divergence. A rise above the previous peak will be a bull signal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Telstra [TLS]
Last covered October 7, 2003.
Telstra has ranged between 5.00 and 4.70 for the last 6 months. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has held below zero, signaling distribution.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is neutral.
Last covered October 7, 2003.
Telstra has ranged between 5.00 and 4.70 for the last 6 months. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has held below zero, signaling distribution.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is neutral.
Equivolume shows false breaks above the resistance level at [a],
[b] and [c]. False breaks often precede a test of the opposite
border of the consolidation range.
A break above or below the range would be a fairly weak signal. It would be sensible to wait for a pull-back that respects the new support/resistance level.
A break above or below the range would be a fairly weak signal. It would be sensible to wait for a pull-back that respects the new support/resistance level.
BHP Billiton [BHP]
Last covered November 25, 2003.
After an initial fast up-trend, in the second half of 2003, BHP has slowed to a creeping up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a bearish divergence. A creeping up-trend can either resume the fast up-trend or reverse into a down-trend; a precarious situation.
Last covered November 25, 2003.
After an initial fast up-trend, in the second half of 2003, BHP has slowed to a creeping up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a bearish divergence. A creeping up-trend can either resume the fast up-trend or reverse into a down-trend; a precarious situation.
News Corporation [NCP]
Last covered November 3, 2003.
NCP is ranging between 11.00 and 13.00. Twiggs Money Flow (100) is well below zero, signaling distribution.
Based on the past record, breakouts should be treated conservatively, as with Telstra.
Last covered November 3, 2003.
NCP is ranging between 11.00 and 13.00. Twiggs Money Flow (100) is well below zero, signaling distribution.
Based on the past record, breakouts should be treated conservatively, as with Telstra.
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Colin Twiggs
Provide for the worst;
the best will take care of itself.
~ SA Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).
the best will take care of itself.
~ SA Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.