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ETOs and
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Trading Diary
October 7, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary
are for educational purposes
and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average rallied to 9655 on higher volume.
Expect resistance between 9660 and 9686.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 9686 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 9686 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite closed 11 points higher at 1908 on higher
volume. Expect resistance at 1910 to 1914.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 1914 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 1914 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 gained 5 points to close at 1039 on higher
volume. Resistance is at 1040.
The intermediate trend is weak. A rise above 1040 will signal resumption of the up-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is weak. A rise above 1040 will signal resumption of the up-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at
80.05% (October 7).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1040. Bearish below 1020.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1040. Bearish below 1020.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Job growth: is it real?
More than 2 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since the start of the recession. And new jobs added are in the lowest paid sectors. (more)
More than 2 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since the start of the recession. And new jobs added are in the lowest paid sectors. (more)
Do-not-call list
A three-judge panel allows the list to be enforced pending a final decision by the Appeals Court, saying that the privacy interests of millions of Americans outweigh the economic harm that telemarketers would suffer. (more)
A three-judge panel allows the list to be enforced pending a final decision by the Appeals Court, saying that the privacy interests of millions of Americans outweigh the economic harm that telemarketers would suffer. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.24%.
The intermediate down-trend appears weak.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.24%.
The intermediate down-trend appears weak.
The primary trend is up.
Gold
New York (19:18): Spot gold has climbed to $376.00.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 350 will signal reversal.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).
New York (19:18): Spot gold has climbed to $376.00.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 350 will signal reversal.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied in the morning before selling pressure
forced a weak close, up 2 points at 3225 on strong volume; a
gravestone
reversal signal.
The intermediate down-trend is weak. There is overhead resistance
at 3238 to 3250; support is at 3160.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow has turned down, signaling distribution.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow has turned down, signaling distribution.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3250. Bearish below 3223.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3000.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3250. Bearish below 3223.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3000.
Telstra [TLS]
Last covered September 29, 2003.
TLS enjoyed a rally off an unstable, narrow bottom; so a re-test of support levels is likely.
Twiggs Money Flow has crossed below zero, signaling distribution.
Last covered September 29, 2003.
TLS enjoyed a rally off an unstable, narrow bottom; so a re-test of support levels is likely.
Twiggs Money Flow has crossed below zero, signaling distribution.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has formed a lower high. A
decline below the previous low will be a bear signal.
On the equivolume chart, price gapped up to [8] on heavy volume;
the weak close signaling resistance. The repeated equal highs at
[4], [5] and [8], below the previous high of [3], are a bear
signal. Weak closes on each high are a further indication.
A close above 5.00 will be bullish.
A fall below 4.70 will be bearish, while a fall below 4.58 will be a stronger signal.
A fall below 4.70 will be bearish, while a fall below 4.58 will be a stronger signal.
CSL Limited [CSL]
Last covered September 30, 2003.
By contrast CSL has formed a reasonably broad base, from February to September, and now shows a bull signal with consolidation at the resistance level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) is rising.
Last covered September 30, 2003.
By contrast CSL has formed a reasonably broad base, from February to September, and now shows a bull signal with consolidation at the resistance level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) is rising.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) trends upwards.
Daily equivolume shows that resistance formed at 17.00 and not
16.50 from the March high. Support is evident at 16.00.
A break above 18.00 will be a bull signal. The target for an
upward breakout would be 20.00 (17.00 + 17.00 - 14.00).
A close below 16.00 would be bearish.
A close below 16.00 would be bearish.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including
directions on how to search the archives.
Colin Twiggs
This mechanism of obedience to a group,
does not only mean obedience or submission to a small group,
or one that is sharply determined, like a religion or political party.
It means, too, conforming to those large, vague, ill-defined collections of people
who may never think of themselves as having a collective mind
because they are aware of differences of opinion
- but which, to people from outside.....seem very minor.
The underlying assumptions and assertions that govern the group are never discussed,
never challenged, probably never noticed, the main one being precisely this:
that it is a group mind, intensely resistant to change,
equipped with sacred assumptions about which there can be no discussion.
~ Doris Lessing: Prisons We Choose To Live Inside (1994).
does not only mean obedience or submission to a small group,
or one that is sharply determined, like a religion or political party.
It means, too, conforming to those large, vague, ill-defined collections of people
who may never think of themselves as having a collective mind
because they are aware of differences of opinion
- but which, to people from outside.....seem very minor.
The underlying assumptions and assertions that govern the group are never discussed,
never challenged, probably never noticed, the main one being precisely this:
that it is a group mind, intensely resistant to change,
equipped with sacred assumptions about which there can be no discussion.
~ Doris Lessing: Prisons We Choose To Live Inside (1994).
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.