ETOs and Warrants
ETOs and warrants are now available.
The data feed has given us a few problems so this section will remain as beta until we are satisfied that all the bugs have been ironed out.
US stocks will follow.

Trading Diary
October 15, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow Industrial Average closed slightly lower at 9803. Higher volume may be attributable to strong buying pressure meeting strong selling pressure and should not yet be taken as a sign of weakness. Higher volume on Thursday, with a close below 9764, would be a sign of intermediate trend weakness: volume should dry up on corrections.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9230 would signal reversal.

The Nasdaq Composite shows a reasonably strong closing price reversal, closing 4 points lower at 1939 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower at 1047 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased slightly to 81.57% (October 15).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1043.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1043.
Long-term: Bullish above 990.

Beige book reports pickup
"The pace of economic expansion has picked up since the last report", according to the latest beige book report, prepared for the next Fed meeting. (more)

Third-quarter earnings were up 5%, in line with forecasts, while sales were below expectations, up 9%. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.40%. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

New York (18:54): Spot gold is lower at $372.60.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up, with support at 343 to 350.

ASX Australia
Selling pressure continued, with the All Ordinaries forming an inside day with a weak close, unchanged at 3292. Exceptionally strong volume warns of a reversal.

The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended after 3 secondary corrections back to the trendline; the probability of a reversal increases with each consecutive (secondary) rally.  

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed below its signal line, completing another bearish divergence.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3289.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160. Tighten stops (to intermediate level) when the secondary rally ends.

Smorgon Steel [SSX] 
Last covered July 30, 2003.
SSX initially formed an unstable V-bottom in 2001, before retreating to consolidate above support at 1.00.
Price is now rising and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) threatens to form a new high.

Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation, but the September low is not noticeably above the previous low so this is not a strong signal.

A pull-back that respects support levels, accompanied by a new 12-month high on Relative Strength (xao), would make a far stronger signal.
A fall below 1.17 would be bearish. 

Lion Selection Group [LSG]
Last covered July 21, 2003.
LSG is one of the strongest performing gold stocks. Price actually made a new high after the recent fall in the gold price .
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals strong accumulation, holding above zero for almost 12 months. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly.

The secondary rally (off the primary trendline) is extended so only short-term traders should look for entry points at present. But it is one for the Watchlist: larger corrections back to the trendline may present longer-term opportunities.

Austereo [AEO]
Last covered October 13, 2003.
AEO has broken out of its base, reaching a new high of 1.60, but volume is very weak. Expect a pull-back to test support levels. Support may well form at the round number of 1.50 rather than the previous high of 1.55, formed on light volume.

Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs

If you're ridin' ahead of the herd,
take a look back every now and then
to make sure it's still there.

~ Will Rogers, cowboy humorist (1879 - 1935).

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