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Trading Diary
July 21, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed an uncertain inside day, closing 1.0% lower at 9096 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 8968 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 lost 15 points to close at 978 on low volume.
The intermediate trend has turned down. MACD shows a bearish divergence.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6% to close at 1681 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is up. If price respects support at 1680, this will signal trend strength. 
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is down at 75.39% (July 18).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1015. Short if below 975.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 962.
Long-term: Long.


Treasury yields
The 10-year note yield climbed 0.2% to 4.19%.
The intermediate trend is up; the primary trend is down.




Gold
New York (17.08): Spot gold rallied to $351.60.
The primary trend is up.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries made a disappointing breakout from the small pennant, failing to hold above resistance at 3080. The index closed weakly, up 6 points at 3071 on low volume. XAO has formed two equal highs over the last month, not particularly bearish in an up-trend, unless there is a fall below the intervening trough of 2979.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up (marginally).

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3075. Short if the index falls below 3050.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3075; short if below 2979.
Long-term: Long above 2979.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Energy stocks have been rising lately, with 6 of the 7 industry stocks in the ASX 200 recording gains in excess of 10% in the last month.



Oil Search [OSH] has formed a stage 1 base from [a] to [c] and, having completed a double bottom at [b] and [c], threatens to break above the long-term trendline. Twiggs Money flow (100) and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) are rising strongly.



Novus [NVS] has formed a smaller but still respectable base, completing a double bottom at [a] and [b].
Twiggs Money flow (100) and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) are rising strongly.



Woodside [WPL] has formed a more unstable V-bottom at [a]. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly; Twiggs Money flow (100) has completed a bullish divergence but has not yet crossed above zero.



Hardman [HDR] has confirmed support at 0.40 with equal lows in 2001 and 2003. The stock has now completed an inverted head and shoulders reversal, at [a], [b] and [c]. 
Twiggs Money flow (100) rose to above zero and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is bullish.






Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


The meaning of our existence is not invented by ourselves,
but rather detected.

~ Viktor Frankl: Man's Search For Meaning (1963).




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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.