ETOs and Warrants
We expect ETOs and warrants to be available by this evening.
The data feed has given us a few problems so this section will have to remain as beta until we are satisfied that all the bugs have been ironed out.
US stocks will follow.

Trading Diary
October 13, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

Despite low volumes, because of the Columbus Day holiday, the Dow Industrial Average broke through resistance, gaining 0.9% to close at 9764.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.

The Nasdaq Composite gapped up to close 19 points higher at 1934 on average volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


The S&P 500 broke through resistance, closing 7 points up at 1045. Volume is low because of the holiday.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator was at 80.90% (October 10).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1040.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 990.

The mobile phone maker surprised the market with third-quarter earnings of 6 cents a share, equal to the same quarter last year, while analysts were forecasting 3 cents. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes ended last week at 4.25%. 
CBOE interest rate products were closed Monday, for Columbus Day holiday.
The intermediate down-trend is weak.
The primary trend is up.

New York (20:37): Spot gold is slightly up at $373.60.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up, with support at 343 to 350.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries gained 17 points to close at 3283 on lower volume.

The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended after 3 secondary corrections back to the trendline at [a], [b] and [c]. The probability of a reversal increases with each consecutive (secondary) rally.  

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow (100) has turned above its signal line but still displays a bearish divergence.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3250.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160. Tighten stops when the intermediate trend reverses.

Broadcasting & Cable TV
This sub-industry popped up in my weekly stock screens.

Publishing & Broadcasting Limited [PBL] (last covered August 13, 2003) formed a double bottom at [a] and [c]. A high probability trade presented itself at [d] with a short correction below the resistance level, accompanied by a dry-up of volume, while Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) had made a new high, with the retracement respecting the new support level; strong confirmation of the bull signal.

The target of 10.77 for the double bottom (9.12 + (9.12 - 7.47)) has already been exceeded, so we may well see a correction. But overhead resistance is still some way off at 13.75.

Seven Network [SEV] (last covered July 3, 2003) has formed an unstable V-bottom. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly but I am still wary of a correction.

Ten Network [TEN] has ranged between 1.80 and 2.80 for the last 5 years, with one false (marginal) break below support at [f].
Price has completed a triple bottom and the target should be resistance at 2.75 to 2.80, the upper end of the range. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly.

Prime Television [PRT]. Price has consolidated in the form of a symmetrical triangle. This is normally a continuation pattern in an up-trend but Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is falling, warning of a downside breakout.

Austereo [AEO] is in a broad stage 1 base. Price has formed a higher low but Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has made new lows, signaling weakness.

Southern Cross Broadcasting [SBC] is likely to encounter heavy resistance between 9.70 and 10.00. A break above 10.00 will be a strong bull signal, with a target of resistance at 12.00. The stock is worth watching for an early entry opportunity, similar to [d] on the PBL chart.

Macquarie Communications Infrastructure Group [MCG] has trended upwards for the past year. Momentum has slowed in the last few months, with consolidation between 2.80 and 3.00. Price has now formed a higher low but there is no sign yet of a breakout on Relative Strength (price ratio: xao).

Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs

A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths:
(1) Anything can happen;
(2) You don't need to know what is going to happen next
in order to make money; ........

~ Mark Douglas: Trading in the Zone.

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