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Trading Diary
August 13, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow closed 0.4% lower at 9272. Continued low volume signals a
lack of commitment from buyers.
The intermediate trend is up. The index is consolidating between 9000 and 9300.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up. The index is consolidating between 9000 and 9300.
The primary trend is up.
The Nasdaq Composite rallied in early trading but later retreated
to close unchanged at 1687 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 continues to show weakness, closing 6 points
lower at 984 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator made
further gains to reach 74.77% (August 12).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 980.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 980.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 950.
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 980.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 980.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 950.
Consumer spending
Consumers are spending, boosted by gains from mortgage refinancing, but businesses are not hiring more staff. (more)
Consumers are spending, boosted by gains from mortgage refinancing, but businesses are not hiring more staff. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to a new 1-year high of 4.56%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
Back Issues
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to a new 1-year high of 4.56%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
Gold
New York (19.20): Spot gold rallied strongly to $362.20.
The primary trend is still upwards.
New York (19.20): Spot gold rallied strongly to $362.20.
The primary trend is still upwards.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries gained 15 points to close at 3150 on lower
volume.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is up.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is up.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3149. Short if the intermediate trend turns down.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3149.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3149. Short if the intermediate trend turns down.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3149.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .
Infomedia [IFM]
The IT sector has formed a stage 1 base and IFM has registered a breakout from a broad stage 1 base.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a huge dip in early May but has since recovered strongly.
The IT sector has formed a stage 1 base and IFM has registered a breakout from a broad stage 1 base.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a huge dip in early May but has since recovered strongly.
Relative Strength has made a 3-month high and MACD is bullish.
The daily volume chart shows large volume on the break out
above an ascending triangle at [1].
Low volume and daily range on a short pull-back at [2] presents an ideal entry point for short-term traders.
Price subsequently encountered resistance at 1.00 with reversal signals at [4] and [5].
The subsequent breakout at [6] displays a weak close and low volume, signaling that a re-test of the 1.00 support level is likely.
Longer-term traders need to be prudent and wait for a clear buy signal: as at [1] and [2].
Low volume and daily range on a short pull-back at [2] presents an ideal entry point for short-term traders.
Price subsequently encountered resistance at 1.00 with reversal signals at [4] and [5].
The subsequent breakout at [6] displays a weak close and low volume, signaling that a re-test of the 1.00 support level is likely.
Longer-term traders need to be prudent and wait for a clear buy signal: as at [1] and [2].
Publishing & Broadcasting Limited [PBL]
Media stocks are starting to improve. PBL completed a double bottom at [a] and is now approaching resistance at 10.50, the first target for the breakout.
Media stocks are starting to improve. PBL completed a double bottom at [a] and is now approaching resistance at 10.50, the first target for the breakout.
News Corporation [NCP]
Strong results hardly budged NewsCorp's price in the US.
There has been some recent buying in anticipation of the results, with Twiggs Money Flow (100) crossing into positive territory, but NCP is still in a stage 1 base.
Strong results hardly budged NewsCorp's price in the US.
There has been some recent buying in anticipation of the results, with Twiggs Money Flow (100) crossing into positive territory, but NCP is still in a stage 1 base.
If Relative Strength makes a new 3-month high, this may
forewarn of a breakout above 13.00.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
If I had six hours to chop down a
tree,
I'd spend the first four hours sharpening the axe.
~ Abraham Lincoln.
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Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.