Trading Diary
November 18, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average fell 0.9% to 9624 on higher volume,
testing the primary trendline.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 28 points to close at 1882 on higher
volume. Penetration of the primary trendline is a bear
signal.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1840 and 1780, the previous two lows (in October).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1840 and 1780, the previous two lows (in October).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower at 1034 on average
volume.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at the primary trendline.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1062. Bearish below 1043 (last Tuesday's low).
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at the primary trendline.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1062. Bearish below 1043 (last Tuesday's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal
reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1062.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1062.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator declined
to 80.38% (November 18).
According to Dorsey a fall below 70% (not a 3-box reversal) would signal a bear alert.
According to Dorsey a fall below 70% (not a 3-box reversal) would signal a bear alert.
Dollar continues to fall
The dollar slid to a record low, almost $1.20, against the euro. (more)
The dollar slid to a record low, almost $1.20, against the euro. (more)
Oil continues to rise
Oil prices increase to more than $33.00 per barrel, the highest level since the Iraq war. (more)
Oil prices increase to more than $33.00 per barrel, the highest level since the Iraq war. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes fell to 4.17%, signaling an intermediate down-trend.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes fell to 4.17%, signaling an intermediate down-trend.
The primary trend is up.
Gold
New York (20:53): Spot gold responded to the falling dollar, testing $400 before easing back to $399.00.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
New York (20:53): Spot gold responded to the falling dollar, testing $400 before easing back to $399.00.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 3 points lower at 3185. The long tail
and higher volume signal increased buying support above the 3160
level. The index may weaken further after the fall in the US
markets.
The intermediate trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords crosses back above resistance at 3250. Bearish below 3238.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords crosses back above resistance at 3250. Bearish below 3238.
The primary trend is up, but will reverse if there is a fall
below 3160 (the October 1 low). The index is below its supporting
trendline, signaling weakness. Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals
strong distribution, after a bearish triple
divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Ansell [ANN]
Last covered on August 14, 2003.
ANN formed a V-bottom in March 2003, rallying strongly before losing momentum in the past few weeks. Price has broken below the long-term trendline, while Twiggs Money Flow (100) is weakening.
Last covered on August 14, 2003.
ANN formed a V-bottom in March 2003, rallying strongly before losing momentum in the past few weeks. Price has broken below the long-term trendline, while Twiggs Money Flow (100) is weakening.
Relative Strength (xao) is level. A fall below the RS support
level will be bearish.
If price falls below support at 6.55, this will be a further bear
signal.
Billabong [BBG]
Last covered on September 22, 2003.
BBG broke briefly above resistance at 7.50 before retreating. Two equal highs, at [2] and [3], below the previous high at [1] are a bear signal. Price is also testing the upward trendline.
However, counter to the above, Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed to above zero, signaling accumulation.
Volume on downward swings is light, with weak closes above the 7.00 support level.
Last covered on September 22, 2003.
BBG broke briefly above resistance at 7.50 before retreating. Two equal highs, at [2] and [3], below the previous high at [1] are a bear signal. Price is also testing the upward trendline.
However, counter to the above, Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed to above zero, signaling accumulation.
Volume on downward swings is light, with weak closes above the 7.00 support level.
The latest peak on Relative Strength (xao) shows support turning
into resistance; a strong bear signal. A break below 7.00 on
strong volume will be a further bear signal.
Stock screens: Relative Strength
In a falling market it is worth screening for stocks that are rising, counter to the trend. Only committed buyers will pursue a stock in a falling market and it is normally worth following these stocks closely. To screen for short-term Relative Strength:
(1) select the ASX 200 (or other suitable index) under Indices;
(2) enter 5% as the Minimum 1-Month % Price Move;
(3) Submit.
Here is a list of the top 11 stocks returned by the screen:
In a falling market it is worth screening for stocks that are rising, counter to the trend. Only committed buyers will pursue a stock in a falling market and it is normally worth following these stocks closely. To screen for short-term Relative Strength:
(1) select the ASX 200 (or other suitable index) under Indices;
(2) enter 5% as the Minimum 1-Month % Price Move;
(3) Submit.
Here is a list of the top 11 stocks returned by the screen:
|
COATES HIRE LIMITED [ COA ] ERG LIMITED [ ERG ] KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED [ KCN ] METCASH TRADING LIMITED [ MTT ] NEWCREST MINING LIMITED [ NCM ] OXIANA LIMITED [ OXR ] PEPTECH LIMITED [ PTD ] PMP LIMITED [ PMP ] SFE CORPORATION LIMITED [ SFE ] TAB LIMITED [ TAB ] TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED [ TOL ] |
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
We see nothing truly 'till we understand
it.
~ John Constable.
~ John Constable.
US charts
We are busy with the transfer to the new dual-CPU server
and expect to have US charts available this week.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.