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ETOs and
Warrants ETOs and warrants are now available. The data feed has given us a few problems so this section will remain as beta until we are satisfied that all the bugs have been ironed out. US stocks will follow. |
Trading Diary
October 14, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary
are for educational purposes
and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average rallied 0.5% to close
at 9813 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 would signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 would signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite closed up 9 points at 1943
on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 rose 4 points to close at 1049
on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator jumped to
81.38% (October 14).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1040.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 990.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1040.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 990.
Intel
The chip maker beat third-quarter earnings estimates, reporting earnings of 25 cents a share and sales up 20% from last year. (more)
The chip maker beat third-quarter earnings estimates, reporting earnings of 25 cents a share and sales up 20% from last year. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped up to 4.35%.
The intermediate trend has turned up.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped up to 4.35%.
The intermediate trend has turned up.
The primary trend is up.
Gold
New York (22:09): Spot gold is up at $374.80.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up, with support at 343 to 350.
New York (22:09): Spot gold is up at $374.80.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up, with support at 343 to 350.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied strongly in early trading before
selling pressure forced a weak close on strong volume: 9 points
up at 3292.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended after 3 secondary corrections back to the trendline; the probability of a reversal increases with each consecutive (secondary) rally.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) is above its signal line but still displays a bearish divergence.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended after 3 secondary corrections back to the trendline; the probability of a reversal increases with each consecutive (secondary) rally.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) is above its signal line but still displays a bearish divergence.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3307.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160. Tighten stops (to intermediate level) when the secondary rally ends.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3307.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160. Tighten stops (to intermediate level) when the secondary rally ends.
Novogen [NRT]
Last covered January 28, 2003.
NRT formed a broad double bottom in 2001/02 with a target of 6.00 (3.50 + (3.50 - 1.00)). The target has now been reached after breaking through resistance at 5.00 from an earlier high.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly.
With each consecutive secondary correction, the likelihood of a primary reversal increases. Traders should take this into account: now would not be a good time to enter long-term trades.
Last covered January 28, 2003.
NRT formed a broad double bottom in 2001/02 with a target of 6.00 (3.50 + (3.50 - 1.00)). The target has now been reached after breaking through resistance at 5.00 from an earlier high.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly.
With each consecutive secondary correction, the likelihood of a primary reversal increases. Traders should take this into account: now would not be a good time to enter long-term trades.
Twiggs Money Flow signals strong accumulation, with a trough
above the zero line.
Selling pressure is now evident on the equivolume chart, with a
weak close at [4] on strong volume.
Earlier we can see ideal entry points at [1] and [2]: pull-backs of short duration, with low volatility and volume, respecting a major support level. Entry is taken with a buy-stop above the high.
These are short-term pull-backs and we should still expect a larger correction to test the support level in the intermediate term.
The bar at [3] would also have made a good entry point: price moved lower to test support but then rallied on strong volume to close at the day's high. If there is strong volume on a downward bar that respects the support level, then the close must signal a reversal. Volatility can be either high or low.
Earlier we can see ideal entry points at [1] and [2]: pull-backs of short duration, with low volatility and volume, respecting a major support level. Entry is taken with a buy-stop above the high.
These are short-term pull-backs and we should still expect a larger correction to test the support level in the intermediate term.
The bar at [3] would also have made a good entry point: price moved lower to test support but then rallied on strong volume to close at the day's high. If there is strong volume on a downward bar that respects the support level, then the close must signal a reversal. Volatility can be either high or low.
Novus Petroleum [NVS]
Last covered July 21, 2003.
Novus broke out of a broad base before retreating back below support at 1.30, the high of [1]. Price has since respected a secondary support level at the high of [2] before rallying. The latest pull-back at [3] is bullish, again respecting the 1.30 level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) formed a trough above zero, signaling strong accumulation.
Last covered July 21, 2003.
Novus broke out of a broad base before retreating back below support at 1.30, the high of [1]. Price has since respected a secondary support level at the high of [2] before rallying. The latest pull-back at [3] is bullish, again respecting the 1.30 level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) formed a trough above zero, signaling strong accumulation.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising; another healthy
sign.
Zimbabwe Platinum [ZIM]
ZIM has consolidated after a healthy up-trend. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is falling and threatens to start a down-trend.
A close below 3.75 will be bearish; a rise above 4.74 bullish.
ZIM has consolidated after a healthy up-trend. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is falling and threatens to start a down-trend.
A close below 3.75 will be bearish; a rise above 4.74 bullish.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including
directions on how to search the archives.
Colin Twiggs
The bigger the base, the bigger the move.
The bigger the top, the bigger the drop
~ Old market maxims.
The bigger the top, the bigger the drop
~ Old market maxims.
ETOs & Warrants
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.