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Trading Diary
August 18, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow rocketed up in early trading before retreating sharply to close at 9412. Low volume and the weak close signal a lack of commitment from buyers.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite made strong gains to test resistance at the previous high. The index closed up 37 points at 1739 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is down, but weakening.
The primary trend is up.


The S&P 500 rallied strongly, closing 9 points up at 1000 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is down, but weakening.
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has risen 0.74% since last week, closing at 75.09% (August 15).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 986.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 960.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 950.

Home improvement
Home improvement retailer Lowes reports a 28% increase in Q2 earnings and a 6.9% increase in same-store sales. (more)

The largest US retailer reports August sales at the high end of expectations, despite fierce competition. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed down slightly at 4.48%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.

New York (17.52): Spot gold retreated to $358.20.
The primary trend is up.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied 15 points to 3158. Lower volume signals a lack of commitment from buyers.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 2978 would signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed to below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
MACD and Twiggs Money Flow (21) show bearish divergences.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Go long if the All Ords is above 3151. Go short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Go long if the index is above 3151.
Long-term: Take long positions if the index is above 2978 .

Gold stocks
Last covered on July 29, 2003.
Gold stocks featured strongly in the weekend review, with 7 ASX 200 stocks recording more than 5% growth in the last month. Even Sons of Gwalia appears to be rising off the floor.

Kingsgate [KCN]
Last covered on July 7, 2003. KCN completed a bear trap at [e]. After a false break below support at [d] the stock rallied back strongly to complete a double bottom reversal.
Price has now reached the target at the high of [a].

Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal strong accumulation, while Relative Strength and MACD are bullish.

The break below support at [d] gave no particular hint of a false break, with normal volume and a fairly strong close. Volume then dried up and 3 days later KCN broke back above 2.87 on low volume, signaling an absence of sellers. We can then see several upward gaps before a strong break above resistance at [e]. This proved another false break, with a sharp reversal below support, before another rally to [f].

Price has encountered resistance at 3.80, with a weak close at [f] and low volume at [g].
KCN is unlikely to hold above 3.80 and, after the recent false breaks, I will only go long on a pull-back that respects the support level.

A fall below 3.30 would be a strong bear signal.

Sons of Gwalia [SGW]
Last covered on July 23, 2003.
SGW has broken out of a stage 1 base after completing a broad ascending triangle at [d].
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has risen above zero, to signal strong accumulation, while Relative Strength and MACD are bullish.

After the breakout, price pulled back to test support at 2.90, providing entry opportunities at [1] and [2].

The above pull-back is short-term and we may later see a secondary correction back to the support level, providing further entry opportunities.
A fall below 2.90 would be bearish.

Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs

We stand at the crossroads each minute, each hour, each day, making choices. We choose the thoughts we allow ourselves to think, the passions we allow ourselves to feel, and the actions we allow ourselves to perform. Each choice is made in the context of whatever value system we've selected to govern our lives. In selecting that value system, we are, in a very real way, making the most important choice
we will ever make.

~ Benjamin Franklin.

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