Brief retracement
By Colin Twiggs
January 29th, 2016 11:00 a.m. AEDT (7:00 p.m. EST)
Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.
My newsletters on December 10th and January 14th warned of the approaching storm across global markets. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Buyers remain present in numbers, however, and this week we have observed a test of new resistance levels. But the weight of the market has shifted to the sell side and a successful breakout is unlikely.
Dow Jones Global Index retraced to test resistance at 290. Respect is likely and would suggest another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to indicate a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 290 - ( 320 - 290 ) = 260
Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above 16000 but follow-through above the previous week's high at 16600 is unlikely. Reversal below 16000 would signal another decline, with a target of 14000*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of long-term selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000
The S&P 500 is consolidating around 1900. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term buying pressure. Upward breakout is unlikely and reversal below 1860 would signal another decline, with a (medium-term) target of 1700*.
* Target calculation: 1900 - ( 2100 - 1900 ) = 1700
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) oscillating between 20 and 30 reflects a "vigilant" market that would react quickly to bad news. A prolonged period of stability would be needed to restore calm.
Canada's TSX 60 is retracing to test resistance at 750. The primary down-trend, which commenced with breach of 800, is well under way and respect of resistance is likely. Breach of 700 would indicate another decline, with a target of 600*.
* Target calculation: 700 - ( 800 - 700 ) = 600
Europe
Dow Jones Germany Index is retracing to test resistance at 350. Respect is likely and reversal below 325 would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero.
* Target calculation: 330 - ( 390 - 330 ) = 270
The Footsie is retracing to test resistance at 6000. Respect would further strengthen the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero. Target for another decline is 5000*.
* Target calculation: 6000 - ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 5000
Asia
Support has given way on the Dow Jones Shanghai Index, strengthening the primary down-trend signaled last August when 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero. Target for the decline is 300*.
* Target calculation: 400 - ( 500 - 400 ) = 300
Dow Jones Japan Index continues to test primary support at 90. Breach would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero.
* Target calculation: 94 - ( 106 - 94 ) = 82
India's Sensex is testing the bottom of the trend channel at 24000. Expect retracement to test long-term resistance at 26000. Respect is likely and would suggest another test of the lower channel border.
* Target calculation: 26500 - ( 30000 - 26500 ) = 23000
Australia
Having breached primary support at 5000, the ASX 200 has shown surprising resilience, retracing to test the new resistance level. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. But the weight of the global bear market is likely to ensure that any attempted rally fails and reversal below 4900 would confirm another decline. Target for the decline is 4600 (medium-term), or 4000* in the long-term.
* Target calculation: 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000
Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn't go into explanations. The reason for what a certain stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape is now - not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left.
~ Jesse Livermore
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