China storm

By Colin Twiggs
January 14^th, 2015 4:30 p.m. AEDT (12:30 a.m. EST)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

My newsletter on December 10th, warned of The Gathering Storm across global markets. A month later, concern over China is sapping investor confidence. Several exchanges signal a primary down-trend and more are approaching the tipping point.

The Dow Jones Global Index broke primary support at 300, warning of a decline to 260*. Follow-through below 290 confirms the signal — and a primary down-trend. A 6-month Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal.

* Target calculation: 300 - ( 340 - 300 ) = 260

North America

Declining profit margins proved a reliable indicator of recent recessions. The 10% year-on-year decline in Q3 is an early warning. Data for Q4 2015 is not yet available. A year-on-year fall of 20% would suggest that recession is imminent.

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of primary support at 1870. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of 1870 would confirm a primary down-trend. Respect of support is unlikely but would suggest another bear rally.

* Target calculation: 1900 - ( 2100 - 1900 ) = 1700

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is rising. Breakout above 30 would warn of elevated risk.

Canada's TSX 60 broke support at 750, confirming a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero strengthen the bear signal. Target for the decline is 700*.

* Target calculation: 800 - ( 900 - 800 ) = 700

Europe

Germany's DAX is headed for a test of primary support at 9400. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a decline to 7500*.

* Target calculation: 9500 - ( 11500 - 9500 ) = 7500

The Footsie again breached 6000, warning of a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero strengthens the signal. Follow-through below 5800 would confirm. Target for the decline is 5000*.

* Target calculation: 6000 - ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 5000

Asia

The Shanghai Composite Index crossed below 3000 for the first time since August. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through below 2900 would confirm another (primary) decline, with a target of 2400*.

* Target calculation: 3000 - ( 3600 - 3000 ) = 2400

Japan's Nikkei 225 is back testing primary support at 17000. The peak at zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm.

* Target calculation: 17500 - ( 20000 - 17500 ) = 15000

India's Sensex breached primary support at 25000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow peaks below zero indicate a primary down-trend. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 25000 but respect is likely. Target for the decline is 23000*.

* Target calculation: 26500 - ( 30000 - 26500 ) = 23000

Australia

The ASX 200 breached primary support at 5000, signaling another decline. Follow-through below 4900 would confirm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Target for a decline is 4600 (medium-term), or 4000* in the long-term.

* Target calculation: 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000

Life is a school of probability.

~ Walter Bagehot

Disclaimer

Porter Private Clients Pty Ltd, trading as Research & Investment ("R&I"), is a Corporate Authorized Representative (AR Number 384 397) of Andika Pty Ltd which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL 297069).

The information on this web site and in the newsletters is general in nature and does not consider your personal circumstances. Please contact your professional financial adviser for advice tailored to your needs.

R&I has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites and newsletters. Our research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate.

No guarantee as to the capital value of investments, nor future returns are made by R&I. Neither R&I nor its employees make any representation, warranty or guarantee that the information provided is complete, accurate, current or reliable.

You are under no obligation to use these services and should always compare financial services/products to find one which best meets your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, such liability shall be limited, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply.

Important Warning About Simulated Results

Research & Investment (R&I) specialise in developing, testing and researching investment strategies and systems. Within the R&I web site and newsletters, you will find information about investment strategies and their performance. It is important that you understand that results from R&I research are simulated and not actual results.

No representation is made that any investor will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Simulated performance results are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight and do not involve financial risk. No modeling can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual investment. Account size, brokerage and slippage may also diverge from simulated results. Numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific investment system cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated performance results and may adversely affect actual investment results.

To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information offered by R&I whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission.

	China storm By Colin Twiggs January 14^th, 2015 4:30 p.m. AEDT (12:30 a.m. EST) Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor. My newsletter on December 10th, warned of The Gathering Storm across global markets. A month later, concern over China is sapping investor confidence. Several exchanges signal a primary down-trend and more are approaching the tipping point. The Dow Jones Global Index broke primary support at 300, warning of a decline to 260. Follow-through below 290 confirms the signal — and a primary down-trend. A 6-month Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal. Target calculation: 300 - ( 340 - 300 ) = 260 North America Declining profit margins proved a reliable indicator of recent recessions. The 10% year-on-year decline in Q3 is an early warning. Data for Q4 2015 is not yet available. A year-on-year fall of 20% would suggest that recession is imminent. The S&P 500 is headed for a test of primary support at 1870. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of 1870 would confirm a primary down-trend. Respect of support is unlikely but would suggest another bear rally. * Target calculation: 1900 - ( 2100 - 1900 ) = 1700 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is rising. Breakout above 30 would warn of elevated risk. Canada's TSX 60 broke support at 750, confirming a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero strengthen the bear signal. Target for the decline is 700. Target calculation: 800 - ( 900 - 800 ) = 700 Europe Germany's DAX is headed for a test of primary support at 9400. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a decline to 7500. Target calculation: 9500 - ( 11500 - 9500 ) = 7500 The Footsie again breached 6000, warning of a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero strengthens the signal. Follow-through below 5800 would confirm. Target for the decline is 5000. Target calculation: 6000 - ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 5000 Asia The Shanghai Composite Index crossed below 3000 for the first time since August. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through below 2900 would confirm another (primary) decline, with a target of 2400. Target calculation: 3000 - ( 3600 - 3000 ) = 2400 Japan's Nikkei 225 is back testing primary support at 17000. The peak at zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm. * Target calculation: 17500 - ( 20000 - 17500 ) = 15000 India's Sensex breached primary support at 25000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow peaks below zero indicate a primary down-trend. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 25000 but respect is likely. Target for the decline is 23000. Target calculation: 26500 - ( 30000 - 26500 ) = 23000 Australia The ASX 200 breached primary support at 5000, signaling another decline. Follow-through below 4900 would confirm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Target for a decline is 4600 (medium-term), or 4000* in the long-term. * Target calculation: 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000 Life is a school of probability. ~ Walter Bagehot Disclaimer Porter Private Clients Pty Ltd, trading as Research & Investment ("R&I"), is a Corporate Authorized Representative (AR Number 384 397) of Andika Pty Ltd which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL 297069). The information on this web site and in the newsletters is general in nature and does not consider your personal circumstances. Please contact your professional financial adviser for advice tailored to your needs. R&I has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites and newsletters. Our research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate. No guarantee as to the capital value of investments, nor future returns are made by R&I. Neither R&I nor its employees make any representation, warranty or guarantee that the information provided is complete, accurate, current or reliable. You are under no obligation to use these services and should always compare financial services/products to find one which best meets your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, such liability shall be limited, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. Important Warning About Simulated Results Research & Investment (R&I) specialise in developing, testing and researching investment strategies and systems. Within the R&I web site and newsletters, you will find information about investment strategies and their performance. It is important that you understand that results from R&I research are simulated and not actual results. No representation is made that any investor will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Simulated performance results are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight and do not involve financial risk. No modeling can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual investment. Account size, brokerage and slippage may also diverge from simulated results. Numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific investment system cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated performance results and may adversely affect actual investment results. To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information offered by R&I whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission.	Share: A+ A− Incredible Charts 10.1 Windows software with proprietary trading tools and stock screens. 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