Live Update: Incredible Charts version 4.0.2.900
|
The latest version of Incredible Charts is now available.
Your version should automatically update when you login to
the server. Check under Help >> About to
confirm that you have received the update. If you experience a timeout error, download the latest version and install over your present version. This will not affect your watchlists and indicator settings. |
Trading Diary
January 20, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average retreated to close at
10528 on lower volume, after testing resistance at
10600.
The intermediate trend is up. Equal highs in an up-trend are not bearish, most resolving in a continuation of the trend. However, a fall below last Tuesday's low of 10367 would complete a double top reversal pattern, with a target of 10134: 10367-(10600-10367).
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. Equal highs in an up-trend are not bearish, most resolving in a continuation of the trend. However, a fall below last Tuesday's low of 10367 would complete a double top reversal pattern, with a target of 10134: 10367-(10600-10367).
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
After gapping up at the opening, the Nasdaq
Composite index formed a hanging man reversal pattern: testing
back into the body of the previous day's candle before closing
back near the open at 2148. I ascribe the strong volume to buying
support (as the range was normal) which, to some extent would
negate the reversal signal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 signals indecision, closing
almost unchanged at 1138. Strong volume is a bearish sign.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175. A fall below 1115 ( last Tuesday's low) would be bearish.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1132. Bearish below 1115.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175. A fall below 1115 ( last Tuesday's low) would be bearish.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1132. Bearish below 1115.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1000 will
signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rose to
85.54% (January 20).
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.057%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.057%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.
Gold
New York (19.05): Spot gold rallied to $412.50 after a low near 405.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
New York (19.05): Spot gold rallied to $412.50 after a low near 405.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries again tested resistance at 3320, closing
marginally above at 3320.8. Lower volume and a narrower trading
range signal lack of commitment from buyers. A follow-through
tomorrow, above 3320, will be a bull signal. A break back below
support at 3293 would be bearish, signaling a likely re-test of
support at 3160.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
The same applies to the long-term cycle: a break above 3320 will
signal a likely re-test of the previous highs at 3425 and
3440.
The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Commonwealth Bank [CBA]
Last covered January 12, 2004.
Commonwealth has pulled back to test support after breaking through resistance at 30.50. Rising Twiggs Money flow (100) signals accumulation.
Last covered January 12, 2004.
Commonwealth has pulled back to test support after breaking through resistance at 30.50. Rising Twiggs Money flow (100) signals accumulation.
CBA tends to move in increments of 50 cents or a dollar,
depending on the speed of the trend.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising, signaling continuation of the up-trend.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising, signaling continuation of the up-trend.
Equivolume shows the break through resistance at 30.50, with an
over-square bar on January 9th. The rally continued through to
31.00 before selling pressure forced a pull-back to 30.50 on
strong volume. Buying support is evident at the support level,
with an over-square bar and weak close in the upper half of the
bar.
An early up-turn, while above the previous peak at [a], will signal continuation of the fast up-trend.
A correction lasting into next week will signal a loss of upward momentum.
An early up-turn, while above the previous peak at [a], will signal continuation of the fast up-trend.
A correction lasting into next week will signal a loss of upward momentum.
About
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
It did not really matter what we expected
from life, but rather what life
expected from us.
We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves
as those who were being questioned by life - daily and hourly.
Our answer must consist, not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct.
Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems
and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual.
~ Viktor Frankl: Man's Search For Meaning (1963)
We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves
as those who were being questioned by life - daily and hourly.
Our answer must consist, not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct.
Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems
and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual.
~ Viktor Frankl: Man's Search For Meaning (1963)
Incredible Posts: Suggestions
We would like to add more 5-star posts to the
Incredible Posts thread.
If you have any suggestions, please post the
links at
the
Suggestion box.
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.