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Trading Diary
January 12, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average closed up at 10485,
testing back within the range of Friday's strong downward candle.
This signals the market's unwillingness to accept lower prices.
The narrow range indicates a lack of buying pressure and low
volume signals the absence of selling pressure; the market is in
equilibrium.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation in a narrow range below 10600 will be a bullish sign. A subsequent breakout above resistance would signal a likely test of 11300.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation in a narrow range below 10600 will be a bullish sign. A subsequent breakout above resistance would signal a likely test of 11300.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite penetrated the upper edge
of the 2000/2100 resistance band, closing at 2111 on strong
volume. A short counter-trend that respects the new support level
will be a strong bull signal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 imitated the Dow, testing back
within Friday's trading range. The index closed up 5 points at
1127 on lower volume, signaling an absence of selling
pressure.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1132 (Thursday's high). Bearish below 1120 (Friday's low).
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1132 (Thursday's high). Bearish below 1120 (Friday's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will
signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1120.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1120.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator reversed
sharply to 85.24% (January 12).
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes appears headed for a re-test of support at 4.00%, closing slightly lower at 4.08%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes appears headed for a re-test of support at 4.00%, closing slightly lower at 4.08%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
Gold
New York (23.28): Spot gold eased to $425.30.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.
New York (23.28): Spot gold eased to $425.30.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries tested support at 3293 before recovering to
close slightly higher at 3308. The long tail and lower volume
signal an absence of selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation between 3320 and 3293
will be a bullish sign, while a fall below 3293 will likely
result in a re-test of support at 3160.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
In the longer-term, the All Ords has consolidated between 3160
and 3320 after a fast up-trend. A break through resistance will
signal a re-test of previous highs at 3425 and 3440. The primary
trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below support at
3160 (the October 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has
leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Banks
The Financial-x-Property index [XXJ] is headed for a re-test of resistance at 4127 to 4136. A close above 4127 will signal that the primary trend has turned upwards.
The Financial-x-Property index [XXJ] is headed for a re-test of resistance at 4127 to 4136. A close above 4127 will signal that the primary trend has turned upwards.
Commonwealth Bank [CBA]
Last covered on December 1, 2003. CBA is testing resistance at the previous high of 30.52. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly.
Last covered on December 1, 2003. CBA is testing resistance at the previous high of 30.52. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) crossed above zero, signaling
accumulation.
After a strong rally, Equivolume shows selling
pressure at the 30.52 to 30.60 resistance band, with strong
volume and weak closes.
It would be premature to enter while price is testing resistance. Normal entry points are:
It would be premature to enter while price is testing resistance. Normal entry points are:
- while price consolidates in a narrow range below resistance (a bullish sign);
- on the breakout above resistance; and
- on a short pull-back to test the new resistance level.
Westpac [WBC]
Last covered on December 1, 2003. Westpac appears headed for a test of resistance at 17.00. Twiggs Money Flow has just started to rise; Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is level.
Last covered on December 1, 2003. Westpac appears headed for a test of resistance at 17.00. Twiggs Money Flow has just started to rise; Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is level.
National Australia Bank [NAB]
Last covered on December 1, 2003. NAB is rising off an equal low (double bottom) at 28.50. The two higher lows at 29.50 are a bullish sign. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is level. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has started to rise and the stock should be monitored closely.
Last covered on December 1, 2003. NAB is rising off an equal low (double bottom) at 28.50. The two higher lows at 29.50 are a bullish sign. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is level. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has started to rise and the stock should be monitored closely.
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Colin Twiggs
Time is the coin of your life.
It is the only coin you have,
and only you can determine how it will be spent.
Be careful lest you let other people spend it for you.
~ Carl Sandburg.
It is the only coin you have,
and only you can determine how it will be spent.
Be careful lest you let other people spend it for you.
~ Carl Sandburg.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.