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Trading Diary
November 24, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average rallied more than 1% to test short-term resistance at 9750, Tuesday's high. The index closed at 9748.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 9500 and 9230.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite jumped 53 points to close at 1947 on higher volume; above short-term resistance at 1923 (November 11 low). The index is likely to test the stronger resistance level at 1980 (November 14 high).
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1840 and 1780.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 rallied to break through early resistance, headed for a test of 1064, the November 14th high. The index closed up 17 points at 1052. Average volume signals a lack of commitment from buyers.
The intermediate trend is down.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1064. Bearish below 1034 (Tuesday's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1064.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased slightly to 79.87% (November 24).


Dollar rebound
The dollar recovered against the yen and euro on thin pre-holiday trade. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped up to 4.23%, a bullish sign.
The intermediate trend is down after bearish equal highs below a higher peak.
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (20.13): Spot gold retreated to $391.40.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 1 point higher at 3176. The long upper shadow and lower volume are bearish and we should see a test of the major 3160 support level. This may be ameliorated after the strong overnight performance of the US markets.



The intermediate trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed back below its signal line.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords rises above Thursday's high of 3206. Bearish below Thursday's low of 3189.

XAO is below the long-term trendline, signaling weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (October 1).
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

Wattyl [WYL]
 Last covered on March 12, 2003.
 WYL has broken downwards after a September-October double top and appears headed for a test of the primary supporting trendline. Twiggs Money Flow (100) is bearish after a sharp fall below the previous low.



Relative Strength (xao) has declined and a fall below the November 4th RS low would add further confirmation.



Selling pressure is signaled by large volume at [1] and [2]. Buying support at 3.80 was overcome with further large volume at [3]. Subsequent price action is on thin volume. A successful test of the 3.80 resistance level, on low volume and volatility, will be a strong bear signal.






Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


Advice is like snow; the softer it falls, the longer it dwells upon,
and the deeper it sinks into the mind.

~ Samuel Coleridge.



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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.