Trading Diary
November 13, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average showed indecision with an inside day
on low volume, closing at 9838.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 would signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 would signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite formed an inside day on slightly higher
volume, signaling some resistance. The index closed 6 points
lower at 1967.
The intermediate trend is up. Expect resistance at 2000 to 2060.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. Expect resistance at 2000 to 2060.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 also shows indecision, closing 1 point lower at
1058 on slightly higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up. Expect some resistance at 1100 (a significant support level from 2001/02).
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1060 (Today's High).
The intermediate trend is up. Expect some resistance at 1100 (a significant support level from 2001/02).
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1060 (Today's High).
The primary trend on the S&P 500 is up. A fall below 960 will
signal reversal (the low from the secondary correction in
August).
Intermediate: Bullish above 1062 (Friday's High). Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1062 (Friday's High). Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator edged up
slightly to 81.06% (November 13).
A 3-box reversal is required to signal a bear alert.
A 3-box reversal is required to signal a bear alert.
Wal-Mart: consumers cautious
Consumers are still cautious according to Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott. (more)
Consumers are still cautious according to Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed down sharply at 4.27%.
The intermediate trend is up. Equal highs, [2] and [3], below the previous high [1] are a bear signal.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed down sharply at 4.27%.
The intermediate trend is up. Equal highs, [2] and [3], below the previous high [1] are a bear signal.
The primary trend is up.
Gold
New York (20:39): Spot gold increased to $395.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
New York (20:39): Spot gold increased to $395.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries has pulled back to test resistance at
3238/3250, closing 13 points higher at 3230. Lower volume signals
a lack of enthusiasm from buyers.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are both below their signal lines.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are both below their signal lines.
The intermediate trend is down but a swing back above the 3238 to
3250 band of resistance would be bullish.
Short term: Bearish below 3238; Bullish above 3250.
The primary trend is up but the rally is extended. Probability of a reversal increases with each successive primary trend movement.
The index has broken the primary trendline and a fall below support at 3160 will signal reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed below zero after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate: Bearish below 3160; Bullish above 3250. Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Short term: Bearish below 3238; Bullish above 3250.
The primary trend is up but the rally is extended. Probability of a reversal increases with each successive primary trend movement.
The index has broken the primary trendline and a fall below support at 3160 will signal reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed below zero after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate: Bearish below 3160; Bullish above 3250. Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Resolute Mining [RSG]
A friend has held Resolute for the past few months. The stock resumed a fast up-trend after a triangular consolidation.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) climbed sharply after crossing its signal line at [1], leveled out during the consolidation, before again starting to climb.
A friend has held Resolute for the past few months. The stock resumed a fast up-trend after a triangular consolidation.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) climbed sharply after crossing its signal line at [1], leveled out during the consolidation, before again starting to climb.
Relative Strength (xao) has resumed its upward rise after a
higher low at [e2].
The earlier rise was signaled by higher lows at [e].
The earlier rise was signaled by higher lows at [e].
Note the dry-up of volume on the downward swings during the
consolidation; a bullish sign.
Consolidations often form roughly at the mid-point in an upward trend; so the target is measured from the start of the trend at, say 0.80, to the high of the triangle, at 1.35. This is then projected from the breakout at 1.25: 1.25 + (1.35 - 0.80) = 1.80.
A more conservative estimate can be calculated from the high and low of the triangle: 1.25 + (1.35 - 1.02) = 1.58.
Entry points were presented at [1] and [3]. Stops at [3] should be placed below the low of [2]: the opposite edge of the triangle is too far away.
Stops should be moved up below each short-term correction or lagged further, below a moving average.
Consolidations often form roughly at the mid-point in an upward trend; so the target is measured from the start of the trend at, say 0.80, to the high of the triangle, at 1.35. This is then projected from the breakout at 1.25: 1.25 + (1.35 - 0.80) = 1.80.
A more conservative estimate can be calculated from the high and low of the triangle: 1.25 + (1.35 - 1.02) = 1.58.
Entry points were presented at [1] and [3]. Stops at [3] should be placed below the low of [2]: the opposite edge of the triangle is too far away.
Stops should be moved up below each short-term correction or lagged further, below a moving average.
Lihir [LHG]
Last covered September 9, 2003.
Lihir has been in a sideways consolidation before threatening a downward breakout - note the fall on RS. Price appears to be recovering but watch for further weakness.
Last covered September 9, 2003.
Lihir has been in a sideways consolidation before threatening a downward breakout - note the fall on RS. Price appears to be recovering but watch for further weakness.
Croesus [CRS]
Last covered September 9, 2003.
Twiggs Money Flow sometimes dips during a consolidation but in this case TMF (100) has fallen sharply, crossing below zero.
Last covered September 9, 2003.
Twiggs Money Flow sometimes dips during a consolidation but in this case TMF (100) has fallen sharply, crossing below zero.
Again, Relative Strength (xao) shows signs of weakness and should
be watched closely.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
Each of us tends to think we see things as they
are, that we are objective.
But this is not the case.
We see the world, not as it is, but as we are - or as we are conditioned to see it.
When we open our mouths to describe what we see, we in effect describe ourselves,
our perceptions, our paradigms.
When other people disagree with us, we immediately think something is wrong with them.
~ Steven Covey: The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.
But this is not the case.
We see the world, not as it is, but as we are - or as we are conditioned to see it.
When we open our mouths to describe what we see, we in effect describe ourselves,
our perceptions, our paradigms.
When other people disagree with us, we immediately think something is wrong with them.
~ Steven Covey: The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.
Ramping
Readers have been quick to identify attempts at ramping on the forum.
Some rampers must be desperate to offload their stock
- they keep popping up under new aliases when they are suspended.
We have had to block the use of Hotmail accounts on the Chart Forum for that reason.
Please remain vigilant and beware of any "raging bull posts" that lack real substance.
I have kept one thread as an example: MPO - about to fly
Readers have been quick to identify attempts at ramping on the forum.
Some rampers must be desperate to offload their stock
- they keep popping up under new aliases when they are suspended.
We have had to block the use of Hotmail accounts on the Chart Forum for that reason.
Please remain vigilant and beware of any "raging bull posts" that lack real substance.
I have kept one thread as an example: MPO - about to fly
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.