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Trading Diary
August 19, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
Apologies for the mystery spike on yesterday's DJIAA. We are
still waiting for an explanation from our data suppliers but they
have adjusted the chart to reflect a high of 9419. I should have
been aware that the DJIAA (actual) can never have a higher high
or lower low than the DJIA (theoretical). Further detail can be
found on the indexes
help page.
The Dow has held above support at 9350 on higher volume, closing 0.2% up at 9429.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The Dow has held above support at 9350 on higher volume, closing 0.2% up at 9429.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The Nasdaq Composite rallied a further 22 points to close at 1761
on higher volume.
The intermediate trend will turn back up if the index rises above 1776.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend will turn back up if the index rises above 1776.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 gained a further 2 points to close at 1002 on
higher volume.
The intermediate trend will reverse up if the index rises above 1015.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend will reverse up if the index rises above 1015.
The primary trend is up.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rallied
to 75.92% (August 19).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 980.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 960.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 950.
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 980.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 960.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 950.
HP misses target
HP returns to profit, posting earnings of 10 cents per share, but fails to meet analysts expectations. (more)
HP returns to profit, posting earnings of 10 cents per share, but fails to meet analysts expectations. (more)
Consumer confidence
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment recorded a fall to 90.2 from 90.9 in July. (more)
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment recorded a fall to 90.2 from 90.9 in July. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes retreated back to 4.36%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes retreated back to 4.36%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
Gold
New York (18.15): Spot gold rallied 350 cents to $361.70.
The primary trend is up.
New York (18.15): Spot gold rallied 350 cents to $361.70.
The primary trend is up.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied early but strong selling pressure
forced a weak close, 7 points higher at 3165.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 2978 would signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
MACD and Twiggs Money Flow (21) continue to show bearish divergences.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 2978 would signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
MACD and Twiggs Money Flow (21) continue to show bearish divergences.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3165. Short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3165.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3165. Short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3165.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .
Great Southern Plantations [GTP]
The weekly chart of GTP shows past volatility, with fast rallies and some sharp corrections. Price has recently made a new 2-year high but will the rally be able to sustain itself?
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals strong accumulation, while Relative Strength and MACD are rising fast.
The weekly chart of GTP shows past volatility, with fast rallies and some sharp corrections. Price has recently made a new 2-year high but will the rally be able to sustain itself?
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals strong accumulation, while Relative Strength and MACD are rising fast.
The latest rally has accelerated away from the supporting
trendline, with a
wide-ranging day [3] measuring more than 2.0 on Jack
Schwager's
Volatility Ratio, followed by a continuation gap on Tuesday.
Price formed a pennant from [p] to the breakout at [3], but the
target of 1.25 has already been reached: 1.09 + (1.24 - 1.08).
Short-term traders may find a trailing stop of 6 or 8 per cent
useful to lock in profits, but this must be calculated on
intra-day highs/lows.
Re-enter (on buy signals) when price returns to the supporting trendline.
A close below the supporting trendline would be a bear signal.
Re-enter (on buy signals) when price returns to the supporting trendline.
A close below the supporting trendline would be a bear signal.
Sons of Gwalia [SGW]
Last covered on August 18, 2003.
SGW fell after reporting a 40% drop in earnings, but recovered to close above the 2.90 support level on strong volume. (more)
The false break below support may have triggered many traders stops.
Last covered on August 18, 2003.
SGW fell after reporting a 40% drop in earnings, but recovered to close above the 2.90 support level on strong volume. (more)
The false break below support may have triggered many traders stops.
Consolidation above 2.90 may present further entry
opportunities.
A close below the support level would be bearish.
A close below the support level would be bearish.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
The trend is your friend except at the end
when it bends.
~ Ed Seykota.
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Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.