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Trading Diary
January 21, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow closed down 1.67% at 8442 on lower volume. A break below 8215 will complete a head and shoulders pattern, with a target of 7354.
The average ranges between 8161 and 9076, at the top end of the base that has been forming since July 2002.
The primary trend is down and will only reverse up if the average rises above 9076 (the high from December 02).

The Nasdaq Composite lost 12 points to close at 1364.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 closed down 14 points at 887, approaching support at 867.
The index ranges between 965 and 768, establishing a base.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 54% (January 17).

President Bush says that Saddam Hussein is not disarming and warns that "time is running out". (more)

New York: Spot gold climbed 210 cents to $US 357.90

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries weakened to close at 3024 on higher volume. The index has completed a short-term double top, with a target of 2984.
The index ranges between 2915 and 3050, forming a base.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) and MACD (26,12,9) are below their signal lines; Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution.

News Corporation [NCP]
Last covered on November 22, 2002.
NCP entered a stage 4 down-trend after a lower high at [1]. Two major patterns formed during the down-trend: a symmetrical triangle at [2] and a descending triangle at [3]. This was followed by equal lows at [4] and [5], which completed a double bottom at about the same time that NCP broke the trendline, at [W].

Note: Readers may be puzzled as to why I have drawn the trendline cutting through [1]. There is no technical reason for this. It just did not fit well any other way.

After a high at [6] the stock now appears to be forming a congestion pattern between 11.00 and 13.00.

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has crossed to above zero and MACD is bullish..

Twiggs Money Flow shows strong accumulation since the completion of the double bottom, hinting at an upward breakout.
Medium/Long-term traders will have stops in place at 11.00 or 11.50, depending on their time frame. Short-term traders may have been stopped out at 12.00 if they had not exited on the lower high. Further confirmation is needed before increasing the long position.

Market strategy
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.

Short-term: Short if the All Ords is below 3023. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are below their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs

How little you know about the age you live in if you think
that honey is sweeter than cash in

- Ovid (43 B.C. - A.D.18).

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