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Trading Diary
July 9, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow retreated 0.73% to close at 9156 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower at 1002.
The intermediate trend is up. 
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite closed 1 point up at 1747.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rose 0.73% to 76.00% on July 8.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Increase long positions if the S&P 500 is above 1010.
Intermediate: Increase long positions if the S&P is above 1010.
Long-term: Increase long positions.

Yahoo stock fell more than 6.0% in after-hours trading, despite announcing positive results.

Is Japan on the rebound?
The Nikkei has rallied 31% since April.

New York (18.25): Spot gold appears to have stabilized at $US 344.50.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries shows uncertainty, with the index closing 6 points down at 3008 on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has turned up; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3022.
Intermediate: The primary trend is up; Long if the All Ords is above 3022.
Long-term: Long.

Oil & Gas Exploration
Last covered on July 1, 2003.
Woodside [WPL] and Santos [STO] have both made new 3-month highs.

Woodside has broken above resistance at 12.50 as well as the long-term downward trendline.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising, having made a 3-month high. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) is rising but still below zero.
MACD has completed a bullish trough above zero.

Santos has completed an unusual reversal pattern: a lower high at [b], followed by a lower trough at [c], and then a correction back above [b].
Heavy volume is clearly visible in the weeks following the low at [c].

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising but has yet to make a new 3-month high. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) and MACD are both bullish.

Neither stock exhibits strong volume at the actual breakout and we can expect a pull-back to re-test the new support levels in the weeks ahead. 

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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
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on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.

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Colin Twiggs

Plan for the difficult while it is easy;
Act on the large while it is minute.....

Those who regard many things as easy
will encounter many difficulties.
Therefore, the Sage regards things as difficult,
And as a result, has no difficulty.

~ Lao Tse.

Stock Screens: New Highs 

To screen for stocks making new highs:

(1) Open % Of Price High;
(2) Enter 98 as the Minimum%;
(3) Sort the Return by clicking on the %H heading.

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