Death of the Yen carry trade
Markets seem convinced that the recent stock sell-off in the US is due to growth concerns -- after a weak labor report. We think they are mistaken. The real cause of the sell-off is the unwinding Yen carry trade.
Hedge funds have been making a killing on the Yen carry trade, but they just got killed. Borrowing cheaply in Yen and investing in stocks and Treasuries in the US, the trade benefited from ultra-low interest rates in Japan, far higher short-term rates in the US, massive appreciation in the top ten stocks on the S&P 500, and a rapidly weakening Yen against the Dollar.
But the Bank of Japan just pulled the rug from under them, raising interest rates and indicating that they plan to normalize monetary policy over time. The move caused a sharp rise in the Japanese Yen, with the US Dollar plunging below 150.
To continue reading - try it for a Dollar
Try our special offer of $1 for the first month.
Subscribers enjoy full access to a comprehensive discussion of each risk measure and regular market risk updates.
Market Analysis Subscribers
Everything contained in this email, related websites, training videos and training courses (collectively referred to as the "Material") has been written for the purpose of teaching analysis, trading and investment techniques. The Material neither purports to be, nor is it intended to be, advice to trade or to invest in any financial instrument, or class of financial instruments, or to use any particular methods of trading or investing.
Advice in the Material is provided for the general information of readers and viewers (collectively referred to as "Readers") and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no Reader should act on the basis of any information in the Material without properly considering its applicability to their financial circumstances. If not properly qualified to do this for themselves, Readers should seek professional advice.
Investing and trading involves risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
You, the Reader, need to conduct your own research and decide whether to invest or trade. The decision is yours alone. We expressly disavow all and any liability to any person, with respect of anything, and of the consequences of anything, done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance upon the whole or any part of the Material.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.