Eleven reasons for optimism in the next decade
This might seem more like a wish list than a forecast -- there are always risks that can derail predictions -- but we believe these are high probability events over the long-term.
Our timeline is flexible, some events may take longer than a decade while others could occur a lot sooner.
Also, some of the reasons for optimism present both a problem and an opportunity. It depends on which side of the trade you are on.
#1 US Politics
The political divide in the United States is expected to heal after neither President Biden nor his predecessor, and current GOP front-runner Donald Trump, make the ballot in 2024. The first due to concerns over his age and the latter due to legal woes and inability to garner support from the center. A younger, more moderate candidate from the right (Nikki Haley) or left (Gavin Newsom?) is likely to be elected in 2024 and lead the reconciliation process, allowing Congress to focus on long-term challenges rather than political grandstanding.
Nikki Haley - Wikipedia
#2 The Rise of Europe
Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas - Wikipedia
Europe is expected to rediscover its backbone, led by the example of Eastern European leaders who have long understood the existential threat posed by Russian encroachment. Increased funding and supply of arms to Ukraine will sustain their beleaguered ally. NATO will re-arm, securing its Eastern border but is unlikely to be drawn into a war with Russia.
#3 Decline of the Autocrats
We are past peak-autocrat -- when Vladimir Putin announced Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 23, 2022.
Vladimir Putin announces invasion of Ukraine - CNN
Russia
The Russian economy is likely to be drained by the on-going war in Ukraine, with drone attacks on energy infrastructure bleeding Russia's economy. Demands on the civilian population are expected to rise as oil and gas revenues dwindle.
Fire at an oil storage depot in Klintsy, southern Russia after it was hit by a Ukrainian drone - BBC
China
The CCP's tenuous hold on power faces three critical challenges. First, an ageing population fueled by the CPP's disastrous one-child policy (1979-2015) and declining birth rates after the 2020 COVID pandemic -- a reaction to totalitarian shutdowns for political ends.
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