Our 2023 Outlook
We wish you all peace and goodwill over the Christmas season and prosperity in the year ahead.
Our office will be closed from December 24 to January 7, 2023. Please use the Message app on the Support page if you need to contact us during the break.
Regards,
The Incredible Charts Team
First published December 19, 2022 at https://thepatientinvestor.com. Excerpt published with permission.
This is our last newsletter for the year, where we take the opportunity to map out what we see as the major risks and opportunities facing investors in the year ahead.
US Economy
The Fed has been hiking interest rates since March this year, but real retail sales remain well above their pre-pandemic trend (dotted line below) and show no signs of slowing.
Retail sales are even rising strongly against disposable personal income, with consumers running up credit and digging into savings.
The Fed wants to reduce demand in order to reduce inflationary pressure on consumer prices but consumers continue to spend. Household net worth has soared -- from massive expansion of home and stock prices, fueled by cheap debt, and growing savings boosted by government stimulus during the pandemic. The ratio of household net worth to disposable personal income has climbed more than 40% since the global financial crisis -- from 5.5 to 7.7.
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Colin Twiggs is director of The Patient Investor Pty Ltd, an Authorised Representative (no. 1256439) of MoneySherpa Pty Limited which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 451289.
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