Bearish divergence warns of tech stock retracement
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The US recorded more than 75,000 new COVID19 cases on July 16th. The CCP must be smiling behind their masks after successfully containing last month's outbreak in Beijing.
Source JHU CSSE
Technology stocks have screamed upwards despite the chaos, but bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow now warns of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 2650 on the Dow Jones US Technology Index.
Dow Jones Banks Index is a more realistic representation of the broader US economy. The weak rally has fizzled out, with a Money Flow peak at zero now warning of strong selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 320 would signal another test of primary support at 270.
Government support can only cushion the impact of a massive surge in unemployment for a limited time. Then we will witness the full extent of the damage.
Continued unemployment claims jumped to 17.355 million on July 4th, up by 840,000 from a week earlier. Judging by the rising virus count, further increases are likely.
But that is only the tip of the iceberg.
The latest Department of Labor update shows 32 million people claimed unemployment insurance benefits in all programs for the week ending June 27.
...21% of the 152.4 million non-farm workforce in February 2020.
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) under the CARES Act, signed into law on March 27, 2020 provides benefits to those individuals "not eligible for regular unemployment compensation or extended benefits under state or Federal law or pandemic emergency unemployment compensation (PEUC), including those who have exhausted all rights to such benefits."
The S&P 500 is inching upwards, reflecting the tug-of-war between technology stocks and the broader market. We expect retracement of the Technology Index to cause another test of support at 3000 (on the S&P 500).
"When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish. But you find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks. I do not allow my possessions — or my prepossessions either — to do any thinking for me. That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape."
~ Jesse Livermore
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Colin Twiggs is director of The Patient Investor Pty Ltd, an Authorised Representative (no. 1256439) of MoneySherpa Pty Limited which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 451289.
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