No V-shaped Recovery

First, please read the Disclaimer.

Initial jobless claims in the US for the 6 weeks to April 25th exceed 30 million.

Initial Jobless Claims

That will take unemployment above 20%, with total jobs dropping back to levels last seen in 1997, and more job losses still to come.

Total Employment (Nonfarm Payroll)

Employment is the key to economic recovery. While unemployment is high, consumer spending will stay low and the economy will struggle. Companies may receive bailouts and the Fed will keep financial markets awash with liquidity but that does not help falling sales.

Companies are also likely to shelve expansion plans, with employment growth a shadow of its former self.

Some industries may never fully recover:

Retail Shopping Malls

DJ US Retail REITs

Airlines

DJ US Airlines

Travel & Tourism

DJ US Travel & Tourism

Hotels

DJ US Hotels

While others are in for a protracted struggle:

Auto Manufacturers: GM and Fiat-Chrysler.

GM and Fiat-Chrysler

Household Goods and Housing Construction

DJ US Household Goods & Housing Construction

Banks

DJ US Banks

...and Consumer Finance

DJ US Consumer Finance

Be prepared. April employment numbers are going to be ugly. Expect some turbulence.

All production is for the purpose of ultimately satisfying a consumer.

~ John Maynard Keynes (1936)

Disclaimer

Colin Twiggs is director of The Patient Investor Pty Ltd, an Authorised Representative (no. 1256439) of MoneySherpa Pty Limited which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 451289.

Everything contained in this web site, related newsletters, training videos and training courses (collectively referred to as the "Material") has been written for the purpose of teaching analysis, trading and investment techniques. The Material neither purports to be, nor is it intended to be, advice to trade or to invest in any financial instrument, or class of financial instruments, or to use any particular methods of trading or investing.

Advice in the Material is provided for the general information of readers and viewers (collectively referred to as "Readers") and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no Reader should act on the basis of any information in the Material without properly considering its applicability to their financial circumstances. If not properly qualified to do this for themselves, Readers should seek professional advice.

Investing and trading involves risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

The decision to invest or trade is for the Reader alone. We expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, with respect of anything, and of the consequences of anything, done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance upon the whole or any part of the Material.

Please read the Financial Services Guide.