Chart of the Week

By Colin Twiggs
January 31, 2019 11:30 p.m. EDT (3:30 p.m. AEDT)

First, please read the Disclaimer.

Spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a "global health emergency" according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Restricted travel is already having an impact on the global economy, with Goldman Sachs anticipating a 0.4% fall in U.S. annualized GDP growth in the first quarter.

Imperial College in London estimates a dangerously high transmission rate for the disease:

Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak....

Johns Hopkins University CSSE reports 11,374 confirmed cases with 259 deaths and 252 recoveries as of 7.00 p.m. on January 31, 2020. Growth of the number of reported cases in Mainland China appears linear, with an increase of 1,700 per day.

JHU CSSE 2019-nCOV spread

That seems highly suspicious when one compares to mathematical modeling and to social media reports from medical staff on the ground. Contagion rates are likely to grow exponentially, rather than in a straight line, and will only peak when authorities are able to bring the transmission rate below 1.0 (compared to the 2.6 posited by Imperial College).

A report in the Epoch Times suggests that Chinese public health authorities have suppressed the reporting of confirmed cases:

"The outbreak of Wuhan coronavirus is far bigger than the official figures released by Chinese public health authorities who cover up the severity by limiting the number of diagnosis kits to Wuhan hospitals, according to an insider and an independent journalist.

The insider and the independent journalist both say that diagnosis kits are only provided to certain 'qualifying hospitals' and in very limited quantities. Medical personnel at these hospitals have said that the number of kits they are supplied is less than 10 percent of what they need to test patients.

Now these hospitals claim that their responsibility at present is to provide treatment only, and they will not perform any diagnoses."

Now these hospitals claim that their responsibility at present is to provide treatment only, and they will not perform any diagnoses."

UK researcher Jonathan Read projects that the epidemic in Wuhan will reach 191,529 by February 4 (prediction interval 132,751-273,649). Chart A shows total number of infections in black and new infections per day in red.

2019-nCOV predicted infection rate - Wuhan 2019-nCOV predicted infection rate - Mainland China

Restriction of road, rail and air travel to/from Wuhan is expected to achieve between 12.5% and 25% reduction in cases in the above areas.

2019-nCOV predicted infection rate - World

Importations into other countries may also be slowed by travel restrictions.

Mortalities are not limited to young children and the elderly and infirm as with most influenza viruses. Healthy adults, including health care workers, are dying. Reported recoveries (252) are low and provide an indication as to the severity of the infection.

Modelling suggests that the number of cases will double every seven days until it peaks. The peak number of cases will depend on how long it takes to contain the outbreak. Another four weeks (3.2 million) would pose a serious threat to the global economy.

Where Fortune is concerned: she shows her force where there is no organized strength to resist her; and she directs her impact there where she knows that no dikes and embankments are constructed to hold her. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince (1532)

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Colin Twiggs is director of The Patient Investor Pty Ltd, an Authorised Representative (no. 1256439) of MoneySherpa Pty Limited which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 451289.

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