Flight to safety

By Colin Twiggs
August 9, 2019 9:00 p.m. EDT (11:00 a.m. AEST)

First, please read the Disclaimer.

Important News

Dear Friends,

I have been writing the Trading Diary newsletter for almost 20 years. It has been a great success but times are changing. Advertisers have largely migrated to Google & social media and independent advertising through brokers has slowed to a trickle. We have therefore decided to change the format of the newsletter in line with these developments.

In future, market analysis will be provided by way of subscription through The Patient Investor. The format will remain the same, with regular updates focused on major markets — stocks, precious metals, commodities, interest rates and the economy — and increased coverage of sectors and industries.

While the change may seem sudden, the changes in advertising revenue have been evident for more than a year and I have been postponing the inevitable for some time.

Details of subscriptions are available at The Patient Investor and include a $1 subscription for the first month.

Thank you for your support.

Global markets and the Flight to Safety

10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven.

Crude found support at $50/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40/barrel. Declining crude prices reflect a pessimistic outlook for the global economy.

The S&P 500 found support at 2850. Rising volatility warns of increased market risk. A test of support at 2750 remains likely.

Declining Money Flow on the Nasdaq 100 reflects rising selling pressure. Expect a test of 7000.

The Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 2850. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of strong selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 2500.

India's Nifty is testing support at 11,000. Breach would offer a target of 10,000.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600, reflecting large cap stocks in the European Union, is is testing primary support at 368. Strong bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of a double-top reversal, with a target of 330.

The Footsie is similarly testing support at 7150. Breach would offer a target of 6600.

I have warned my clients to cut exposure to the market. It's a good time to be cautious.

"There is a time for all things, but I didn't know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time."

~ Jesse Livermore

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Disclaimer

Colin Twiggs is director of The Patient Investor Pty Ltd, an Authorised Representative (no. 1256439) of MoneySherpa Pty Limited which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 451289.

Everything contained in this web site, related newsletters, training videos and training courses (collectively referred to as the "Material") has been written for the purpose of teaching analysis, trading and investment techniques. The Material neither purports to be, nor is it intended to be, advice to trade or to invest in any financial instrument, or class of financial instruments, or to use any particular methods of trading or investing.

Advice in the Material is provided for the general information of readers and viewers (collectively referred to as "Readers") and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no Reader should act on the basis of any information in the Material without properly considering its applicability to their financial circumstances. If not properly qualified to do this for themselves, Readers should seek professional advice.

Investing and trading involves risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

The decision to invest or trade is for the Reader alone. We expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, with respect of anything, and of the consequences of anything, done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance upon the whole or any part of the Material.

Please read the Financial Services Guide.

	Flight to safety By Colin Twiggs August 9, 2019 9:00 p.m. EDT (11:00 a.m. AEST) First, please read the Disclaimer. Important News Dear Friends, I have been writing the Trading Diary newsletter for almost 20 years. It has been a great success but times are changing. Advertisers have largely migrated to Google & social media and independent advertising through brokers has slowed to a trickle. We have therefore decided to change the format of the newsletter in line with these developments. In future, market analysis will be provided by way of subscription through The Patient Investor. The format will remain the same, with regular updates focused on major markets — stocks, precious metals, commodities, interest rates and the economy — and increased coverage of sectors and industries. While the change may seem sudden, the changes in advertising revenue have been evident for more than a year and I have been postponing the inevitable for some time. Details of subscriptions are available at The Patient Investor and include a $1 subscription for the first month. Thank you for your support. Global markets and the Flight to Safety 10-Year Treasury yields are near record lows after Donald Trump's announcement of further tariffs on China. The fall reflects the flight to safety, with rising demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Crude found support at $50/barrel. Breach would warn of a new down-trend, with a target of $40/barrel. Declining crude prices reflect a pessimistic outlook for the global economy. The S&P 500 found support at 2850. Rising volatility warns of increased market risk. A test of support at 2750 remains likely. Declining Money Flow on the Nasdaq 100 reflects rising selling pressure. Expect a test of 7000. The Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 2850. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of strong selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 2500. India's Nifty is testing support at 11,000. Breach would offer a target of 10,000. Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 600, reflecting large cap stocks in the European Union, is is testing primary support at 368. Strong bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of a double-top reversal, with a target of 330. The Footsie is similarly testing support at 7150. Breach would offer a target of 6600. I have warned my clients to cut exposure to the market. It's a good time to be cautious. "There is a time for all things, but I didn't know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time." ~ Jesse Livermore Latest ASX Dead cat bounce. Gold Gold spikes as the Yuan falls. The long game Why the West is losing. S&P 500 Buybacks are hurting growth. S&P 500 Rate cuts and buybacks — the emperor's new clothes. S&P 500 A good time to be cautious. PEmax Why you should be wary of Robert Shiller's CAPE Portfolio Investing in a volatile market - April 2018 Disclaimer Colin Twiggs is director of The Patient Investor Pty Ltd, an Authorised Representative (no. 1256439) of MoneySherpa Pty Limited which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 451289. Everything contained in this web site, related newsletters, training videos and training courses (collectively referred to as the "Material") has been written for the purpose of teaching analysis, trading and investment techniques. The Material neither purports to be, nor is it intended to be, advice to trade or to invest in any financial instrument, or class of financial instruments, or to use any particular methods of trading or investing. Advice in the Material is provided for the general information of readers and viewers (collectively referred to as "Readers") and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no Reader should act on the basis of any information in the Material without properly considering its applicability to their financial circumstances. If not properly qualified to do this for themselves, Readers should seek professional advice. Investing and trading involves risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The decision to invest or trade is for the Reader alone. We expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, with respect of anything, and of the consequences of anything, done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance upon the whole or any part of the Material. Please read the Financial Services Guide.	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