US Retail & Light Vehicle Sales slow
By Colin Twiggs
July 14, 2017 9:30 p.m. EDT (11:30 a.m. AEST)
Disclaimer
Please read the Disclaimer. I am not a licensed investment adviser.
Retail sales growth (excluding motor vehicles and parts) slowed to 2.4% over the 12 months to June 2017.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
Seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales are also slowing.
Source: St Louis Fed & BEA
Seasonally adjusted private housing starts and new building permits are starting to lose momentum.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
The good news is that Manufacturer's Durable Goods Orders (seasonally adjusted and ex Defense & Aircraft) are recovering.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
Cement and concrete production continues to trend upwards.
Source: US Fed
And estimated weekly hours worked (total nonfarm payroll * average weekly hours) is growing steadily.
Source: St Louis Fed & BLS
All of which suggest that business confidence is growing and consumer confidence is likely to follow. Bellwether transport stock Fedex advanced to 220, signaling rising economic activity in the broader economy.
Target: 180 + ( 180 - 120 ) = 240
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 2450, making a new high. Narrow consolidations and shallow corrections all signal investor confidence typical of the latter stages of a bull market. The immediate target is 2500* but further gains are likely.
Target: 2400 + ( 2400 - 2300 ) = 2500
The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.
~ Warren Buffett
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.