Bears threaten US rally

By Colin Twiggs
February 4^th, 2016 6:00 p.m. AEDT (2:00 a.m. EST)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

Rallies on the Dow and S&P 500 reflect a more positive outlook for the US economy. But the FTSE 100 has followed China's Shanghai Composite and India's SENSEX into bear territory, while Germany's DAX, Japan's Nikkei 225 and Australia's ASX 200 threaten key support levels. There is very little to cheer about at present.

Dow Jones Global Index is testing resistance at the former primary support level of 290. Respect is likely and breach of 270 would confirm another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero flag a strong primary down-trend.

* Target calculation: 290 - ( 320 - 290 ) = 260

Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above primary support at 16000 but respect of 17000 is likely and would warn of another decline. Breach of 16000 ofers a target of 14000*. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty.

* Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000

The S&P 500 recovered above 1900, while rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-/medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of 2000 but breakout is unlikely. Breach of support at 1900 would signal another decline, with a (medium-term) target of 1700*.

* Target calculation: 1900 - ( 2100 - 1900 ) = 1700

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to range between 20 and 30 reflecting hesitancy — and the potential to react quickly to bad news.

Canada's TSX 60 also retraced to test resistance at 750. Respect is likely and breach of 700 would offer a target of 650*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend.

* Target calculation: 700 - ( 750 - 700 ) = 650

Europe

Germany's DAX is testing primary support at 9500. Peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warn of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 9300 would confirm.

* Target calculation: 9500 - ( 11500 - 9500 ) = 7500

The Footsie retreated below 6000, signaling a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero further strengthen the signal. Long-term target for a decline is 5000*.

* Target calculation: 6000 - ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 5000

Asia

Support has given way on the Shanghai Composite Index, strengthening the primary down-trend signaled last August when 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero. Target for the decline is 2400*.

* Target calculation: 3000 - ( 3600 - 3000 ) = 2400

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is testing primary support at 17000. Breach is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero.

* Target calculation: 94 - ( 106 - 94 ) = 82

Two failed swings on India's Sensex (failing to reach the upper trend channel) warn of increasing selling pressure. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero confirm this. Follow-through below 24000 would offer a target of 22500*.

* Target calculation: 25000 - ( 27500 - 25000 ) = 22500

Australia

The ASX 200 staged a short rally today but sentiment remains bearish and respect of the recent high at 5050 would warn of another decline. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the weight of global bear markets is likely to sap any enthusiasm. Reversal below 4850 would offer a medium-term target of 4650*, or 4000* in the long-term.

* Target calculation: 4850 - ( 5050 - 4850 ) = 4650; 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000

The largest sector, Banks, is already in a primary down-trend, having been singled out for particular attention by the bears. Breach of support at 7500/7600 would warn of a decline to 6600*.

* Target calculation: 7600 - ( 8600 - 7600 ) = 6600

Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.

~ Ed Seykota

Disclaimer

Porter Private Clients Pty Ltd, trading as Research & Investment ("R&I"), is a Corporate Authorized Representative (AR Number 384 397) of Andika Pty Ltd which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL 297069).

The information on this web site and in the newsletters is general in nature and does not consider your personal circumstances. Please contact your professional financial adviser for advice tailored to your needs.

R&I has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites and newsletters. Our research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate.

No guarantee as to the capital value of investments, nor future returns are made by R&I. Neither R&I nor its employees make any representation, warranty or guarantee that the information provided is complete, accurate, current or reliable.

You are under no obligation to use these services and should always compare financial services/products to find one which best meets your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, such liability shall be limited, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply.

Important Warning About Simulated Results

Research & Investment (R&I) specialise in developing, testing and researching investment strategies and systems. Within the R&I web site and newsletters, you will find information about investment strategies and their performance. It is important that you understand that results from R&I research are simulated and not actual results.

No representation is made that any investor will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Simulated performance results are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight and do not involve financial risk. No modeling can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual investment. Account size, brokerage and slippage may also diverge from simulated results. Numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific investment system cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated performance results and may adversely affect actual investment results.

To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information offered by R&I whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission.

	Bears threaten US rally By Colin Twiggs February 4^th, 2016 6:00 p.m. AEDT (2:00 a.m. EST) Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor. Rallies on the Dow and S&P 500 reflect a more positive outlook for the US economy. But the FTSE 100 has followed China's Shanghai Composite and India's SENSEX into bear territory, while Germany's DAX, Japan's Nikkei 225 and Australia's ASX 200 threaten key support levels. There is very little to cheer about at present. Dow Jones Global Index is testing resistance at the former primary support level of 290. Respect is likely and breach of 270 would confirm another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero flag a strong primary down-trend. * Target calculation: 290 - ( 320 - 290 ) = 260 Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above primary support at 16000 but respect of 17000 is likely and would warn of another decline. Breach of 16000 ofers a target of 14000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty. Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000 The S&P 500 recovered above 1900, while rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-/medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of 2000 but breakout is unlikely. Breach of support at 1900 would signal another decline, with a (medium-term) target of 1700. Target calculation: 1900 - ( 2100 - 1900 ) = 1700 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to range between 20 and 30 reflecting hesitancy — and the potential to react quickly to bad news. Canada's TSX 60 also retraced to test resistance at 750. Respect is likely and breach of 700 would offer a target of 650. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend. Target calculation: 700 - ( 750 - 700 ) = 650 Europe Germany's DAX is testing primary support at 9500. Peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warn of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 9300 would confirm. * Target calculation: 9500 - ( 11500 - 9500 ) = 7500 The Footsie retreated below 6000, signaling a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero further strengthen the signal. Long-term target for a decline is 5000. Target calculation: 6000 - ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 5000 Asia Support has given way on the Shanghai Composite Index, strengthening the primary down-trend signaled last August when 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero. Target for the decline is 2400. Target calculation: 3000 - ( 3600 - 3000 ) = 2400 Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is testing primary support at 17000. Breach is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero. * Target calculation: 94 - ( 106 - 94 ) = 82 Two failed swings on India's Sensex (failing to reach the upper trend channel) warn of increasing selling pressure. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero confirm this. Follow-through below 24000 would offer a target of 22500. Target calculation: 25000 - ( 27500 - 25000 ) = 22500 Australia The ASX 200 staged a short rally today but sentiment remains bearish and respect of the recent high at 5050 would warn of another decline. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the weight of global bear markets is likely to sap any enthusiasm. Reversal below 4850 would offer a medium-term target of 4650, or 4000 in the long-term. * Target calculation: 4850 - ( 5050 - 4850 ) = 4650; 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000 The largest sector, Banks, is already in a primary down-trend, having been singled out for particular attention by the bears. Breach of support at 7500/7600 would warn of a decline to 6600. Target calculation: 7600 - ( 8600 - 7600 ) = 6600 Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty. ~ Ed Seykota Disclaimer Porter Private Clients Pty Ltd, trading as Research & Investment ("R&I"), is a Corporate Authorized Representative (AR Number 384 397) of Andika Pty Ltd which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL 297069). The information on this web site and in the newsletters is general in nature and does not consider your personal circumstances. Please contact your professional financial adviser for advice tailored to your needs. R&I has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites and newsletters. Our research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate. No guarantee as to the capital value of investments, nor future returns are made by R&I. Neither R&I nor its employees make any representation, warranty or guarantee that the information provided is complete, accurate, current or reliable. You are under no obligation to use these services and should always compare financial services/products to find one which best meets your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, such liability shall be limited, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. Important Warning About Simulated Results Research & Investment (R&I) specialise in developing, testing and researching investment strategies and systems. Within the R&I web site and newsletters, you will find information about investment strategies and their performance. It is important that you understand that results from R&I research are simulated and not actual results. No representation is made that any investor will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Simulated performance results are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight and do not involve financial risk. No modeling can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual investment. Account size, brokerage and slippage may also diverge from simulated results. Numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific investment system cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated performance results and may adversely affect actual investment results. To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information offered by R&I whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission.	Share: A+ A− Incredible Charts 10.1 Windows software with proprietary trading tools and stock screens. 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