Watch out for the caboose
By Colin Twiggs
November 12th, 2015 6:30 p.m. AEDT (2:30 a.m. EST)
Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.
Markets remain tentative and we continue to limit our exposure to roughly 50% of portfolio value. The danger is that you avoid the steam engine but get hit by the caboose when you step back on the tracks. It is safer to wait until the anxiety subsides.
North America
The S&P 500 encountered moderate resistance at the previous high of 2130. Retracement is mild and looks promising for the next attempt at 2130. Decline of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow is gradual, indicating light selling pressure. Breakout above 2130 would signal a fresh primary advance. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1870.
* Target calculation: 2130 + ( 2130 - 1870 ) = 2390
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates market risk is easing.
NYSE short sales remain subdued.
A long-term chart shows the Nasdaq 100 testing its March 2000 high of 4800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate selling pressure but the pattern appears secondary in nature and recovery above the declining trendline would suggest a breakout.
Canada's TSX 60 reversed below 800, warning of another decline. Failure of 775 would strengthen the signal. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at -5% is a strong bear signal.
* Target calculation: 775 - ( 825 - 775 ) = 725
Europe
Germany's DAX continues to test resistance at 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 11000 and the descending trendline would suggest another test of the previous high at 12400. Respect is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support.
The Footsie is weakening, having respected resistance at 6500. A sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of 6250 would warn of another test of primary support at 6000. Breakout above 6500 is less likely, but would suggest another test of 7000.
Asia
The Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 3500 and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. It would be prudent to wait for a higher trough before interpreting this as a reversal.
Japan's Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 19000. Expect retracement to test the new support level; respect would confirm another test of 21000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 19000 + ( 19000 - 17000 ) = 21000
India's Sensex fell through the former band of primary support at 26000/26500. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero continue to indicate long-term buying pressure, but failure to recover above 26500 in the short-term would be a strong bear signal. Follow-through below 25000 would confirm a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 25000 - ( 27500 - 25000 ) = 22500
Australia
The ASX 200 broke medium-term support at 5150, warning of another test of primary support at 5000. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong support at 5000. Breach of 5000 is unlikely at this stage, but would warn of a (long-term) decline to 4000*.
* Target calculation: 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000
Life is a school of probability.
~ Walter Bagehot, author of Lombard Street and 1860-1877 editor of The Economist
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