The rally continues

By Colin Twiggs
February 26th, 2015 6:00 p.m. AEDT (2:00 a.m. ET)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

Apart from China and India, last week's broad market rally is going strong, with the S&P 500 and the DAX making new highs.

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 2100. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but respect is likely to confirm an advance to 2200*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2100 + ( 2100 - 2000 ) = 2200

CBOE Volatility Index is declining, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX


Germany's DAX broke resistance at its medium-term target of 11000*. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect of support would indicate trend strength and a medium-term target of 11500 (10000-8500). Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum troughs above zero predict a strong up-trend.


* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 - 9000 ) = 11000

The Footsie is testing its December 1999 high of 6950. Breakout would signal a fresh primary advance, with a long-term target of 8000*. Follow-through above 7000 would confirm. Momentum is rising, but it will take considerable impetus to make a new high.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 8000


China's Shanghai Composite Index faces considerable resistance at 3400. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 3050 would warn of a decline to test the primary trendline at 2700.

Shanghai Composite Index

Is the Chinese economy a one-trick pony or will economic growth continue when the infrastructure boom ends?

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index broke resistance at its 2007 high of 18000/18300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reflects buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but target for the advance is 20000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 20000

India's Sensex is testing resistance at 30000, but declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum over the last 6 months warns the primary up-trend is weakening. A healthy correction to 26500/27000 (signaled by breach of support at 28000) would re-establish a solid base, otherwise the index may struggle to break 30000.



The ASX 200 is consolidating between 5850 and 5950. The narrow range is a bullish sign and breakout above 5950 would indicate continuation of the advance to 6150*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below support at 5850 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 - 5150 ) = 6150

Alexander Hamilton started the U.S. Treasury with nothing, and that was the closest our country has ever been to being even.

~ Will Rogers


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