Dow finds support

By Colin Twiggs
September 3rd, 2014 3:30 am EDT (5:30 pm AEST)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

Research & Investment: Performance update

ASX200 Prime Momentum strategy returned +22.64%* for the 12 months ended 31st August 2014 compared to +14.41% for the benchmark ASX200 Accumulation Index.

ASX200 Prime Momentum

The S&P 500 Prime Momentum strategy had a good month, gaining 5.98% in August. The strategy has been running live for ten months, since November 2013, and returned 15.46%* for the period, compared to 15.96% for the S&P 500 Total Return Index. A sell-off of momentum stocks affected performance since April, but macroeconomic and volatility filters indicate low risk typical of a bull market and we maintain full exposure to equities.

* Results are unaudited and subject to revision.

US Markets

Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced to test support at 17000. Respect is likely and would indicate a fresh advance. Follow-through above 17150 would confirm a target of 17500*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above its July peak would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 16950 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 - 15500 ) = 17500

The S&P 500 is also testing support — at 2000. Respect would offer a target of 2100*. Follow-through above 2005 would confirm. A small trough above zero on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow is encouraging, but reversal below 20% would warn of selling pressure. Failure of short-term support at 1985/1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 - 1900 ) = 2100

Low CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings are typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

Bellwether transport stock Fedex respected support at $144/$145, indicating another advance. Follow-through above $154/$155 would confirm a healthy up-trend — for both the stock and the economy. Likewise, a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would suggest long-term buying pressure and another primary advance. Breach of support is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at $129/$130.


* Target calculation: 145 + ( 145 - 130 ) = 160

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