Aussie Dollar resilient despite ASX correction

By Colin Twiggs
March 21st, 2014 12:30 a.m. EDT (3:30 p.m. AEDT)

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China's Shanghai Composite Index is again testing primary support at 1990/2000. A triangle formation on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates uncertainty. Breach of 1990 would warn of a primary decline to 1850. Respect is less likely, but would suggest a (bear) rally to 2080.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 - ( 2150 - 2000 ) = 1850

China is dragging the ASX lower despite a resilient US market. Breach of medium-term support at 5340 warns of a correction. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure and reversal below zero would strengthen the signal. The primary trend remains upward, however, and only breach of support at 5050 would signal a reversal.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 - 5000 ) = 5800

ASX 200 VIX retreated to 13, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

The Aussie Dollar is also proving resilient, testing resistance at $0.91 and the descending trendline despite weakness on the ASX. Upward breakout would suggest the down-trend is weakening. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would go further, signaling a primary up-trend, though only breakout above $0.97 would confirm. Reversal below medium-term support at $0.89 remains more likely, however, and would warn of another decline. Breach of primary support at $0.87 would offer a target of $0.83*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.87 - ( 0.91 - 0.87 ) = 0.83

It was the change in my own attitude that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating.

~ Jesse Livermore