Dollar falls and gold rises

By Colin Twiggs
October 24th, 2013 2:30 a.m. EDT (5:30 p:m AEDT)

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The Dollar Index respected resistance at 80.50, breaking below 80 to confirm a primary decline. Breach of the 2012 lows at 79 would confirm a long-term target of 76.50*. The falling dollar is boosting gold prices.

* Target calculation: 80.5 - ( 84.5 - 80.5 ) = 76.5

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke through support at 2.60 percent, heading for primary support at 2.40 percent. Falling yields depress the dollar while lowering the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, exerting upward pressure on gold. Respect of primary support, however, would warn of an advance to 3.60 percent.

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 - 2.40 ) = 3.60

Gold

Spot gold recovered above $1300 and its descending trendline on the daily chart, suggesting another primary advance. Breakout above $1350 would confirm, offering a target of 1600*. Respect of resistance, however, would warn of another test of $1250.

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 - 1250 ) = 1600

The weekly chart shows how penetration of the September high would signal a new primary up-trend. Strengthened if 13-week Twiggs Momentum crosses to above zero.

Bullish divergence of 13-week Twiggs Momentum on the Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 280 would confirm.

Crude Oil

Nymex crude broke medium-term support at $98/barrel. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level, but respect would warn the primary up-trend is over. Divergence of Brent crude reflects both a strengthening European recovery and continued supply threats in the Middle East.

Commodity Prices

China's Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term support at 2150. Downward breakout would warn of another correction — a bearish sign for commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index consolidation between 124 and 130 reflects indecision. Breakout will indicate future direction. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a continuing down-trend, while cross to above zero would suggest a reversal.

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 - 125 ) = 135

Intellect is not wisdom.

~ Thomas Sowell