Forex: Aussie resistance, Yen falls

By Colin Twiggs
June 12th, 2012 10:30 p.m. EDT (12:30 p:m AET)

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The Aussie Dollar rallied to $0.955 on the 2-hour chart before encountering selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2011 low at $0.94. Breach would indicate another decline. The next target is $0.90*, with a long-term target of $0.80*. Breakout above $0.955 is unlikely, but would re-test resistance at $0.98.

* Target calculations: 0.94 - ( 0.98 - 0.94 ) = 0.90 and 0.95 - ( 1.10 - 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada's Loonie, however, respected support at $0.96, heading for another test of resistance at $0.99 or parity. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests continuation of the down-trend. Respect of resistance would indicate another decline, with a target of $0.94*.

* Target calculation: 0.94 - ( 1.06 - 0.94 ) = 0.82

The euro broke resistance at $1.32 and is headed for $1.37*. Breakout is some way off, but would offer a target of $1.47*.

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 - 1.27 ) = 1.47

Pound Sterling broke resistance at $1.56, signaling an advance to $1.63*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

* Target calculation: 1.56 + ( 1.56 - 1.50 ) = 1.62

The greenback continues a strong correction against the Yen, but this is a secondary movement and the primary up-trend is unaltered. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥113*. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 - 95 ) = 113; (b) 100 + ( 100 - 75 ) = 125

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