Forex: Aussie falls but Euro and Yen unfazed

By Colin Twiggs
June 6th, 2012 4:00 a.m. EDT (6:00 p:m AET)

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After a weak rally to $0.98, the Aussie Dollar broke primary support at $0.96, signaling a strong down-trend. Long-term target for the decline is $0.80*.

* Target calculation: 0.95 - ( 1.10 - 0.95 ) = 0.80

Canada's Loonie is also likely to break support at $0.96, offering a long-term target of $0.82*.

* Target calculation: 0.94 - ( 1.06 - 0.94 ) = 0.82

The euro, however, broke resistance at $1.30 and is headed for a test of $1.32. Breach of that level would offer a target of $1.36*. But respect of $1.32 would warn of a head and shoulders reversal — completed if support at $1.27 is broken.

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 - 1.28 ) = 1.36

The greenback reversed sharply against the Yen in the last week, falling from ¥104 to ¥99. But the scale of the reversal is placed in its proper perspective on a monthly chart. The primary up-trend is unfazed, and recovery above resistance at ¥100 would signal a fresh advance with a target of ¥110*. The 30-year secular bear trend is over. Long-term target for the advance is the 2007 high at ¥125*.

* Target calculations: (a) 104 + ( 104 - 99 ) = 109; (b) 100 + ( 100 - 75 ) = 125

Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to ensure safety of capital.

~ Gerald Loeb