Gold and commodities fall while Dollar and bond yields rise

By Colin Twiggs
May 16th, 2013 4:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p:m AET)

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Gold broke the rising trendline and support at $1440/$1450, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target of $1200* for the decline would be confirmed by a breach of primary support.

* Target calculation: 1350 - ( 1500 - 1350 ) = 1200

Treasury Yields

Ten-year treasury yields broke resistance at 1.80% and are headed for a test of 2.00/2.05%. Breach of that level would signal a primary up-trend, but the thirty-year secular bear trend (in yields) remains downward and would only be reversed by a rise above 4.00%. Respect of resistance at 2.05% remains likely and would indicate another down-swing to test primary support at 1.60%. A weak inflation outlook, as indicated by falling gold prices, would decrease demand for stocks (as an inflation hedge) and increase demand for bonds.

Dollar Index

The Dollar is strengthening, with the Dollar Index testing resistance at 84. Breakout would signal a test of long-term resistance at 89/90*.

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 - 79 ) = 89

Crude Oil

Brent Crude respected resistance at $106/barrel, indicating a down-swing to $92*. Nymex WTI respected resistance at $98 and is likely to re-test resistance at $85/barrel. A classic pair trade, the spread between the two is likely to narrow as the European economy under-performs.

Commodities

Commodity prices continue to fall, with the Dow Jones/UBS Commodity Index headed for primary support at 125/126. The major driver of commodity prices is China and reversal of the current down-trend, on both indices, appears some way off despite a US recovery.

It is always important in matters of high politics to know what you do not know. Those who think they know, but are mistaken, and act upon their mistakes, are the most dangerous people to have in charge.

~ Margaret Thatcher, Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World (2002)