Gold finds support while the Dollar rises

By Colin Twiggs
March 14th, 2013 3:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p:m AET)

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Spot gold is testing primary support at $1500 to $1550. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a reversal and failure of support at $1500 would confirm. A Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the signal.

On the weekly chart we can see respect of support at $1550 is likely to be followed by a rally to test the February 26 high at $1620. That is likely to be followed by a re-test of support at $1550 but breakout above $1620 and the trend channel would indicate an advance to $1800.

My conclusion is similar to last week:

I am not yet convinced that gold is headed for a primary down-trend. We may be in a low-inflation/deflationary environment right now but central bank expansionary policies will counteract this. Watch out for bear traps. Respect of primary support around $1500 could present a buying opportunity.

Dollar Index

A stronger dollar contributes to weaker gold prices. Breakout of the Dollar Index above 84.00 would signal an advance to 89.00/90.00. Rising momentum suggests continuation of the up-trend.

Crude Oil

A long-term view shows Brent and Nymex Crude ranging at far higher prices than in the lead up to the GFC. High crude prices continue to inhibit the global recovery. Breakout of Nymex above $100/barrel and Brent Crude above $120 would signal a primary up-trend — and more bad news for the recovery — while failure of primary support at $84 and $106/barrel, respectively, would signal a primary down-trend.

Commodities

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index found support at 126, but....

The Continuous Commodity Index has already broken its equivalent support level. Respect of resistance at 29 would confirm another down-swing to test the June 2012 lows. The Dow Jones-UBS Index would most likely follow.

The only real valuable thing is intuition.

~ Albert Einstein