Gold long tail as dollar retreats

By Colin Twiggs
November 29th, 2012 1:30 a.m. ET (5:30 p:m AET)

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Yesterday's long tail on the spot gold daily chart indicates support at $1700 per ounce. Recovery above $1750 would signal another test of $1800. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum well above zero continues to indicate a healthy up-trend. A weakening dollar would strengthen the signal.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 - 1700 ) = 1900

The Dollar Index (weekly chart) is testing medium-term support at 80. Failure would threaten a head-and-shoulders reversal. Breach of primary support at 78.50 would offer a target of 74*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero already suggests a primary down-trend. Recovery above 81.50 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to 84.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 - ( 84 - 79 ) = 74

The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) respected support at 140, helped by the weaker dollar. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend but reversal would re-test primary support at 126.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Nymex WTI Light Crude and ICE Brent Crude both trend downwards but the gap between the two is widening. Middle East tensions affect Brent Crude supply more than its West Texas cousin. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would confirm: WTI at $78 per barrel and Brent Crude at $90.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Everybody has got to die, but I always believed an exception would be made in my case.

~ William Saroyan (1908 - 1981)