Forex: Europe, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Japan

By Colin Twiggs
June 21st, 2012 12:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p:m AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

The Euro is testing its new resistance level at $1.26. Respect would offer a target of $1.17*. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, warns that the down-trend is weakening; recovery above zero would suggest reversal to a primary up-trend. Breach of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal.

Euro/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.26 - ( 1.35 - 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling displays a strong up-trend against the euro, again testing resistance at €1.25. Breakout would signal an advance to €1.30*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating high above zero indicates trend strength.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 + ( 1.26 - 1.22 ) = 1.30

The Greenback has corrected sharply against the Japanese Yen before finding medium-term support at ¥78. Recovery above ¥80 (and the descending trendline) would indicate that the correction is over, while breach of support would test primary support at ¥75.50/76.50. The long-term bullish divergence on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of reversal to an up-trend.

USD/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 - 78 ) = 90

Sharply falling crude oil prices have weakened Canada's Loonie relative to the Aussie Dollar. Against the greenback, the Loonie bounced of short-term support at $0.96 but this is unlikely to last and we should expect a test of primary support at $0.94/0.95. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 - ( 0.98 - 0.96 ) = 0.94

The Aussie Dollar lifted along with commodity prices and is headed for a test of $1.02 (USD). Upward breakout would signal an advance to $1.08, while respect of resistance (and the descending trendline) would warn of a decline to $0.90*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 0.96 - ( 1.02 - 0.96 ) = 0.90

The Aussie Dollar is also headed for a test of resistance at R8.50 (South African Rand). Breakout would offer a target of R9.00*. Reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 - 8.00 ) = 9.00

Law and order is a social service. Crime and the fear which the threat of crime induces can paralyse whole communities, keep lonely and vulnerable elderly people shut up in their homes, scar young lives and raise to cult status the swaggering violent bully who achieves predatory control over the streets. I suspect that there would be more support and less criticism than today's political leaders imagine for a large shift of resources from Social Security benefits to law and order — as long as rhetoric about getting tough on crime was matched by practice.

~ Margaret Thatcher