Safe haven demand for dollar and gold eases

By Colin Twiggs
December 8th, 2011 4:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p:m AET)

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The Dollar Index is testing support at 78.00. Narrow consolidation above the support level indicates weakness. Recovery above 79.00 would relieve this, while failure of support would warn of another test of primary support at 75.00. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum, well above zero, however, suggests continuation of the up-trend.

* Target calculations: 80 + ( 80 - 75 ) = 85

Spot gold is also weak as safe haven demand for both the yellow metal and the dollar has eased. Reversal below $1670 would signal another test of primary support at $1600. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests further weakness but the long-term outlook remains bullish with the indicator comfortably above the zero line.

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 - 1700 ) = 1900

Increased tensions with Iran are supporting the price of Brent Crude above $105/barrel. Narrow oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around the zero line indicates uncertainty. Failure of support (and respect of the descending trendline) would indicate another primary decline with a target of $85*. Breach of primary support at $99 would confirm.

* Target calculation: 100 - ( 115 - 100 ) = 85

The CRB Commodities Index respected its descending trendline, suggesting a primary decline to $265*. Follow-through below short-term support at $305 would strengthen the signal, while breach of primary support at $295 would confirm. The Aussie Dollar and Canada's Loonie both closely follow commodity prices and can be expected to follow the CRB index lower.

* Target calculation: 295 - ( 325 - 295 ) = 265

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