Dollar Breaks 100 Yen
By Colin Twiggs
April 9, 2009 1:00 a.m. ET (3:00 p:m AET)
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Euro
The euro failed to test resistance at $1.37 and is now headed for short-term support at $1.31. Breakout would test primary support at $1.25. In the long term, failure of the band of support at $1.25 would offer a target of $1.00 (calculated as 1.25 - [ 1.50 - 1.25 ]). Recovery above $1.47 is unlikely, but would signal a primary trend change — and test previous highs at $1.60.

Source: Netdania
Japanese Yen
The dollar penetrated resistance at ¥100, providing confirmation of the recent breakout from a descending broadening wedge, then retraced to test the new support level. Respect of support would confirm the up-trend, with a target of ¥105 (calculated as 99 + [ 100 - 94 ]). Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap. In the long term, failure of primary support at ¥87 is also unlikely, and breakout above ¥100 offers a target of ¥110 (the August 2008 high).

Source: Netdania
Australian Dollar
The quarter percent rate cut by the RBA did not disturb the up-trend
of the Australian dollar against the greenback.
Respect of the rising trendline is likely, followed by a test of resistance at $0.7300.
Breakout above $0.7300 would offer a target of the September high of $0.8500
(calculated as
0.7250 + [ 0.7250 - 0.6000 ]).
Failure of $0.60 now appears unlikely, but would target the 2001 lows between $0.48 and $0.50.

Source: Netdania
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.