S&P 500 Breaks Through 1500

By Colin Twiggs
May 5, 2007 1:00 a.m. ET (3:00 p.m. AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

USA: Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for a test of the upper border of the trend channel. Reversal below 13000 would signal a test of the lower channel border. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) displays short-term profit-taking at 13000, but accumulation is expected to resume. Reversal below 12000 is unlikely, but would warn of a secondary correction.

Close observation will reveal that the channel lines are not symmetrical: I have dragged the top channel line closer to the linear regression line because in this case data is not evenly distributed around the LR line.

Long Term: The primary up-trend continues, with the first line of support at the May 2006 peak of 11600 and primary support at the June 2006 low of 10700. Expect strong primary trend moves in the next few months: we are in phase 3 of a bull market. Just don't be blinded by the euphoria.

Short Term: A weak close at [W] and a doji candlestick at [F] signal some hesitation, but the up-trend is expected to continue.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average respected the new support level of 5000 at [A]: a strong bull signal.

Fedex recovered after two false breaks below support, while UPS displays a bearish consolidation while undergoing a secondary correction.

The Nasdaq Composite completed a second retracement [B] that respected the new support level of 2500: another bullish sign. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals long-term accumulation having respected the zero line for several months.

Long Term: The primary up-trend continues, with support at 2350 and 2000.

The S&P 500 broke through key resistance at 1500 after a bullish narrow consolidation. Friday's weak close warns of further resistance; a short retracement that respects the new support level would be another bullish sign, while reversal below 1500 would warn of a test of the lower channel border. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) is well above zero, signaling strong accumulation. The target for the primary trend move is 1545 (1460 + [1460-1375]).

Long Term: The primary trend is up, with support levels at 1325 and 1220.

LSE: United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 flag respected support at 6400 and the breakout is expected to test the upper border of the trend channel (coinciding with the 1999 all-time high of 6950). Reversal below 6400 is unlikely, but would signal a test of the lower channel border.

Long Term: The primary up-trend continues. A fall below 6000 is not expected, but would warn of a test of primary support at 5500.

Nikkei: Japan

Not much has happened on the Nikkei 225 because of the short (3 day) trading week. The index is edging towards the lower channel border, rather than retracing sharply: an encouraging sign. Recovery above 17500 would signal continuation of the up-trend; while a break below the lower border would warn of a test of the March low of 16600; and a fall below 16600 would warn of a test of primary support at 14200. A Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) fall below zero would also warn of further distribution.

Long Term: The primary trend remains up.

ASX: Australia

The All Ordinaries is rising steeply above the upper border of the trend channel (drawn at 2 standard deviations around a linear regression line), indicating that the up-trend is accelerating. Typical of phase 3 in a bull market. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) warns of long-term profit-taking, while a sharp rise in the last week reflects short-term accumulation. Accelerating trends rise swiftly, but inevitably spike into a blow-off and sharp reversal.

Long Term: The primary up-trend continues, with the first line of support at the May 2006 high of 5300 and primary support at the June 2006 low of 4800.

Short Term: Support held at 6150, the lower border of the narrow consolidation, and Wednesday's strong blue candle overcame resistance to start another rally. Expect a test of the upper border of the trend channel. Reversal below 6150 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of 6000.

People's human rights have to work in a way in which they can resolve conflicts — day to day conflicts — where the rights of the individual have to be balanced against the rights of the community.

In the vast majority of those cases, of conflict between rights, common sense tells us the answer. Common sense tells us how to resolve the conflicts which may arise.

Take the recent example of the row over a decision by Derbyshire police not to release — supposedly on human rights grounds — photographs of two convicted murderers who had been imprisoned in both cases for over a decade and who had escaped from prison. The crimes involved were serious: brutal murder. The idea that the human rights of people convicted of such crimes would, should or could prevent the legitimate use of photographic material in the course of trying to reapprehend them is utter nonsense. Not human rights. Not the law. Most certainly not common sense.

~ UK Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs Lord Falconer of Thoroton in his address to the Manchester School of Law.

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