Trading Diary
September 17, 2005

USA

The S&P 500 started the week with consolidation at [1] followed by a short (bullish) down-swing. Further consolidation at [4] preceded a strong blue candle [5] and the index appears headed for another test of resistance at 1245. A close above 1245 would complete a bullish cup and handle pattern, with the cup from [A] to [1].

Exceptional volume on Friday [5] is attributable to triple-witching hour. Contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options simultaneously expire on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. The last hour of trading is highly volatile as traders attempt to close their positions.

The primary trend is up, but we still have this tiresome rising wedge pattern. Completion of the cup and handle pattern would be a bullish sign for the entire market. The target is almost 1300, which would mean a breakout from the larger wedge pattern: 1245 + (1245 - 1200) = 1290. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) is looking bullish, having crossed to above zero after a short retracement. 

Primary support is at 1140.

The Dow Industrial Average is headed for another test of resistance at 10700 after a short (bullish) retracement. Failure to breach that level would warn of a test of primary support at 10000. However, Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) is looking bullish, having risen to above zero, and a breakout is a distinct possibility. The target would be the upper border of the long-term consolidation pattern: 10700 + (10700 - 10400) = 11000

Expect strong resistance at 11000 and strong support at 10000. The most likely scenario is for the Dow to range between 10000 and 11000 for some time; restraining advances on the other major US indices.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average is forming a top, having started a secondary correction below the previous high of 3900; also reflected by the flat 100-day MA. Fedex has only made a marginal break below support at its June 2005 low; which could easily turn into a bear trap. UPS is a little way behind, currently testing support. If both stocks resume their primary down-trend, we could see the index follow suit.

The Nasdaq Composite has held above support at 2100 and appears headed for a test of the upper border of the bearish rising wedge pattern. The crucial question is: does the index have sufficient strength to break out? Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) has recovered above zero but does not yet appear strong enough. 

Primary support is at 1900.

Treasury yields

Long-bond yields are consolidating above 4.0%. The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) is below 1%, signaling a flat yield curve. This squeezes bank margins and is a bearish signal for equity markets. A negative yield curve, where the yield differential is below zero, is normally followed by a strong down-turn in equity markets in about 12 months.

Gold

New York: Spot gold broke through resistance at $450, closing at $459.00 on Friday to reach a 17-year high. The metal now faces clear skies overhead and should rally strongly towards $500. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of a pull-back to test the new support level.

United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 started the week with low volumes, consolidating below resistance at 5380, before the breakout out on strong volume at [5] completed a cup and handle pattern. The cup extends from [A] to [1], while the handle lasts from Monday [1] to Thursday. The target is: 5380 + (5380 - 5230) = 5530.

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) crossed above zero, to signal accumulation.

The primary trend is upward. There may be some remaining resistance at 5400, but expect resistance to increase between 6000 and 6900.

Japan

The Nikkei 225 continues in a strong up-trend. The week started with a gap above resistance at 12700, followed by two days of consolidation before a strong blue candle at [4]. High volumes on Thursday [4] signal short-term exhaustion, but sellers made little impression on Friday; the day ending with a long tail. 

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) climbed higher above the zero line, signaling strong accumulation. The long-term target for the breakout is 16400: 12000 + ( 12000 - 7600 [the April 2003 low]).

ASX Australia

The All Ordinaries again demonstrated the power of a bull market. Starting the week slowly on low volume [1], the index then rallied to test resistance at 4460 with low volume indicating an absence of sellers. A close above 4460 on Wednesday was met by strong selling at [4], the compressed spring (narrow range accompanied by high volume) signaling fierce opposition from buyers and sellers. Compressed springs are normally followed by a strong move like the rally (to 4500) on Friday, when resistance failed.

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) remains high above zero, signaling strong accumulation. The conventional target for the rally is calculated:
4250 [B] + (4250 - 3900 [C]) = 4600. While a more aggressive target would be 5000, calculated by projecting the previous up-swing from its' peak: 4250 [B] + (4250 - 3450 [A]) = 5050.

The All Ords does not function in isolation, however. We need to keep a weather eye on the S&P 500.