Trading Diary
May 21, 2005

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.




USA

The Dow Industrial Average is clearly in an intermediate up-trend, after higher lows at [A] and [B]. The index broke above resistance from the previous high on Wednesday [3] with a strong blue candle and increased volume. Subsequent consolidation above the new support level on light volume indicates that buying pressure has eased. If the index respects support at 10400 that would be a bullish sign. A close above 10500 would signal that a test of resistance at 10900 is likely. A close below 10400, on the other hand, would signal a re-test of support at 10000.





In the longer term, there is strong buying support between 10000 and 9750, the October low, and fierce resistance around 11000. Resolution of this latest "top" may well take some time and the direction of the final breakout is by no means certain. Technically the index is in a primary down-trend but the recent break above 10400 signals trend weakness.

Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) continues to signal distribution.





The Nasdaq Composite penetrated resistance at 2000 and is climbing strongly. A pull-back that respects support at 2000 would signal that a test of resistance at 2150 is likely.

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) is climbing steeply, signaling accumulation (intermediate term).





The S&P 500 is also in an intermediate up-trend, having broken above resistance at 1180 on strong volume [3]. Expect a re-test of resistance at 1225, the March 2005 high.





As mentioned last week, the Dow trend reversal was more like a false or marginal break below the previous support level. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, having exceeded the previous high at [1]. A pull-back that holds above zero would be a bullish sign.





A narrow consolidation or shallow correction below 1225 would be a strong bull signal, warning of a primary trend reversal.







Treasury yields

The yield on 10-year treasury notes is headed for a test of support at 4.0%.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) has declined to 1.3%. Below 1.0% would be a long-term bear signal for equities.







Gold

New York: Spot gold fell to $417.30, after flirting with support/resistance at $420 for most of the week.. 
The primary trend will reverse downward if price falls below the February low of $410.










ASX Australia

The All Ordinaries has encountered solid support at 3900, after positive signals from US markets. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) formed a bullish trough above the zero line at [2]. This was followed by a close above 3980 at [4]. Expect a test of resistance at 4080.





The index is still in a primary down-trend, 4080 is merely the first line of resistance.





Failure of support at 3900 would signal that a test of support at 3450 is likely, amounting to roughly a 50% retracement of the previous up-trend. If you review the All Ords over the past 25 years, the index has regularly cut back to test support at previous highs.









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Colin Twiggs


The saddest people I see die are people who had parents who said "Oh, I would be so proud if I can say 'my son the doctor.'" They think they can buy love by doing what mom tells them to do and what dad tells them to do. They never listen to their own dreams. And they look back and say, "I made a good living but I never lived." That, to me, is the saddest way to live.

That's why I tell people, and I really mean it literally, if you're not doing something that really turns you on, do something that does turn you on.......... Those people die with a sense of achievement, of priding themselves that they had the guts to do it.

~ Elizabeth Kubler-Ross
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.