Trading Diary
May 21, 2005
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use.
USA
The Dow Industrial Average is clearly in an intermediate up-trend, after higher lows at [A] and [B]. The index broke above resistance from the previous high on Wednesday [3] with a strong blue candle and increased volume. Subsequent consolidation above the new support level on light volume indicates that buying pressure has eased. If the index respects support at 10400 that would be a bullish sign. A close above 10500 would signal that a test of resistance at 10900 is likely. A close below 10400, on the other hand, would signal a re-test of support at 10000.
The Dow Industrial Average is clearly in an intermediate up-trend, after higher lows at [A] and [B]. The index broke above resistance from the previous high on Wednesday [3] with a strong blue candle and increased volume. Subsequent consolidation above the new support level on light volume indicates that buying pressure has eased. If the index respects support at 10400 that would be a bullish sign. A close above 10500 would signal that a test of resistance at 10900 is likely. A close below 10400, on the other hand, would signal a re-test of support at 10000.
In the longer term, there is strong buying support between 10000
and 9750, the October low, and fierce resistance around 11000.
Resolution of this latest "top" may well take some time and the
direction of the final breakout is by no means certain.
Technically the index is in a primary down-trend but the recent
break above 10400 signals trend weakness.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) continues to signal distribution.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) continues to signal distribution.
The Nasdaq Composite penetrated resistance at 2000 and is
climbing strongly. A pull-back that respects support at 2000
would signal that a test of resistance at 2150 is likely.
Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) is climbing steeply, signaling accumulation (intermediate term).
Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) is climbing steeply, signaling accumulation (intermediate term).
The S&P 500 is also in an intermediate up-trend,
having broken above resistance at 1180 on strong volume [3].
Expect a re-test of resistance at 1225, the March 2005 high.
As mentioned last week, the
Dow trend reversal was more like a false or marginal break
below the previous support level.
Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, having
exceeded the previous high at [1]. A pull-back that holds above
zero would be a bullish sign.
A narrow consolidation or shallow correction below 1225 would be
a strong bull signal, warning of a primary trend reversal.
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is headed for a test of support at 4.0%.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) has declined to 1.3%. Below 1.0% would be a long-term bear signal for equities.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is headed for a test of support at 4.0%.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) has declined to 1.3%. Below 1.0% would be a long-term bear signal for equities.
Gold
New York: Spot gold fell to $417.30, after flirting with support/resistance at $420 for most of the week..
The primary trend will reverse downward if price falls below the February low of $410.
New York: Spot gold fell to $417.30, after flirting with support/resistance at $420 for most of the week..
The primary trend will reverse downward if price falls below the February low of $410.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries has encountered solid support at 3900, after positive signals from US markets. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) formed a bullish trough above the zero line at [2]. This was followed by a close above 3980 at [4]. Expect a test of resistance at 4080.
The All Ordinaries has encountered solid support at 3900, after positive signals from US markets. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) formed a bullish trough above the zero line at [2]. This was followed by a close above 3980 at [4]. Expect a test of resistance at 4080.
The index is still in a primary down-trend, 4080 is merely the
first line of resistance.
Failure of support at 3900 would signal that a test of support at
3450 is likely, amounting to roughly a 50% retracement of the
previous up-trend. If you review the
All Ords over the past 25 years, the index has regularly cut
back to test support at previous highs.
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Colin Twiggs
The saddest people I see die are people who had parents who said
"Oh, I would be so proud if I can say 'my son the doctor.'" They
think they can buy love by doing what mom tells them to do and
what dad tells them to do. They never listen to their own dreams.
And they look back and say, "I made a good living but I never
lived." That, to me, is the saddest way to live.
That's why I tell people, and I really mean it literally, if you're not doing something that really turns you on, do something that does turn you on.......... Those people die with a sense of achievement, of priding themselves that they had the guts to do it.
~ Elizabeth Kubler-Ross
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That's why I tell people, and I really mean it literally, if you're not doing something that really turns you on, do something that does turn you on.......... Those people die with a sense of achievement, of priding themselves that they had the guts to do it.
~ Elizabeth Kubler-Ross
http://www.healthy.net/scr/interview.asp?PageType=Interview&ID=205
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