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Incredible Charts version
4.0.3.700
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Trading Diary
October 2, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational
purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full
terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use.
USA
The Dow Industrial Average rallied strongly after a false break below 10000. Thursday's weak close accompanied by strong volume signals that buyers presently dominate the market. A break above 10350 would be a bull signal, while a pull-back that respects support at this level would add further confirmation. A break below 10000 would likely test support at 9800.
The Dow Industrial Average rallied strongly after a false break below 10000. Thursday's weak close accompanied by strong volume signals that buyers presently dominate the market. A break above 10350 would be a bull signal, while a pull-back that respects support at this level would add further confirmation. A break below 10000 would likely test support at 9800.
The longer-term consolidation pattern around 10000 reflects
market uncertainty. A trough above 10000 would be a bullish sign,
while a peak below this level would be bearish.
Twiggs Money Flow is distinctly bearish, falling sharply since the beginning of the year.
Twiggs Money Flow is distinctly bearish, falling sharply since the beginning of the year.
The Nasdaq Composite has gapped through resistance at 1900
on higher volume: a strong bull signal. Expect a test of support
at 2050.
Twiggs Money Flow has crossed above the signal line but still
looks tentative.
The primary trend remains downward
The primary trend remains downward
The S&P 500 has rallied strongly in the last two days,
signaling that buyers control market direction in the short-term.
Twiggs Money Flow is moving sideways, reflecting
indecision.
In the long-term, consolidation around 1100 continues. Falling troughs signal weakness but there is no clear breakout as yet. An intermediate trough above 1100 would be a bullish sign, while a peak below 1100 would be bearish.
In the long-term, consolidation around 1100 continues. Falling troughs signal weakness but there is no clear breakout as yet. An intermediate trough above 1100 would be a bullish sign, while a peak below 1100 would be bearish.
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Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes was boosted by rising oil prices, rallying to 4.20% after a false break below support at 4.00%.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) increased to 2.5%.
Differentials below 1.0% are long-term bear signals.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes was boosted by rising oil prices, rallying to 4.20% after a false break below support at 4.00%.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) increased to 2.5%.
Differentials below 1.0% are long-term bear signals.
Gold
New York: Spot gold has broken free of the consolidation above support at $400, closing the week at $419.10.
A pull-back that respects support at $410 would be a further bull signal.
The next major resistance level is the 10-year high of $427.25.
New York: Spot gold has broken free of the consolidation above support at $400, closing the week at $419.10.
A pull-back that respects support at $410 would be a further bull signal.
The next major resistance level is the 10-year high of $427.25.
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ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries quickly recovered after a short correction last week. Increased volume on the rally, and a weak close and lower volume on Friday, indicate that buyers dominate the market.
The All Ordinaries quickly recovered after a short correction last week. Increased volume on the rally, and a weak close and lower volume on Friday, indicate that buyers dominate the market.
Twiggs Money Flow has completed a series of small troughs
above the signal line: a bullish sign.
The All Ords is in a strong primary up-trend. Bear in mind, however, that any good trend has corrections. Allow for a test of support at 3550 in the medium-term and 3450 in the longer-term.
The All Ords is in a strong primary up-trend. Bear in mind, however, that any good trend has corrections. Allow for a test of support at 3550 in the medium-term and 3450 in the longer-term.
Incredible Charts - new Search
Facility
In addition to the new securities toolbar, Incredible Charts version 4.0.3.700 offers an improved securities search function. You no longer have to upload exchanges in order to search them: the search works off the server.
Basic Search
View last Search
Refine your Searches
Add a space after the name/code and then enter an exchange code.
This will limit a search to that exchange.
Example: A search for bhp ao will list all BHP options and warrants.
In addition to the new securities toolbar, Incredible Charts version 4.0.3.700 offers an improved securities search function. You no longer have to upload exchanges in order to search them: the search works off the server.
Basic Search
- Select the Search button
on the toolbar
(or select Securities >> Search on the menu) - Enter whole or part of a security's name in the dialog box
- Click Find Next
- Select a security by double-clicking on the name.
View last Search
- Click
Return to Last Search.
Refine your Searches
Add a space after the name/code and then enter an exchange code.
This will limit a search to that exchange.
Example: A search for bhp ao will list all BHP options and warrants.
Exchange codes are:
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Set a Default Exchange
(only available in version 4.0.3.710 - to be released next week as a test version)
Set a Default Exchange and you will not need to enter the EXCHANGECODE for that exchange.
Example: If Australia is set as the Default Exchange, you need only type ncp instead of ncp ax to load News Corporation.
To set a Default Exchange:
Sort the Search Return
Click on a column heading to sort the Search Return:
Search for Code Only
To exclude names and search for security codes only:
(only available in version 4.0.3.710 - to be released next week as a test version)
Set a Default Exchange and you will not need to enter the EXCHANGECODE for that exchange.
Example: If Australia is set as the Default Exchange, you need only type ncp instead of ncp ax to load News Corporation.
To set a Default Exchange:
-
Right-click the
Search button - Select an exchange (e.g. AUSTRALIA)
- Or select Securities >> Set Default Exchange from the chart menu.
Sort the Search Return
Click on a column heading to sort the Search Return:
- Click on the Security header to sort in alphabetical order.
- Click on the blank header square, above the bullets, to sort in order of the security code.
Search for Code Only
To exclude names and search for security codes only:
-
click the drop-down arrow next to the
Search button
on the toolbar; - select Search for Security Code Only.
About
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
It's not how much you make that matters,
it's how much you can keep that counts!
(with thanks to Holycow on the Chart Forum)
Source unknown -- If any reader can recall this, please email me.
it's how much you can keep that counts!
(with thanks to Holycow on the Chart Forum)
Source unknown -- If any reader can recall this, please email me.
Back Issues
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.