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Incredible Charts version
4.0.3.700
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Trading Diary
September 25, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use.
USA
The Dow Industrial Average fell sharply during the week, on moderate volume. Friday's weak close shows a brief period of consolidation before a re-test of the 10000 support level; a bearish sign.
Twiggs Money Flow is falling sharply, signaling distribution.
The Dow Industrial Average fell sharply during the week, on moderate volume. Friday's weak close shows a brief period of consolidation before a re-test of the 10000 support level; a bearish sign.
Twiggs Money Flow is falling sharply, signaling distribution.
The longer-term consolidation pattern around 10000 reflects
market uncertainty. A trough above 10000 would be a bullish sign,
while a peak below this level would be bearish.
The Nasdaq Composite has broken back below 1900 on low
volume. Failure to reverse back above the support level early in
the next week will be a bearish sign, indicating a probable test
of support at 1750.
Twiggs Money Flow reflects indecision, having reversed back below the signal line.
The primary trend is still downward
Twiggs Money Flow reflects indecision, having reversed back below the signal line.
The primary trend is still downward
The S&P 500 has fallen on low volume, testing the
first level of support (medium term) at 1110.
Twiggs Money Flow has retreated, reflecting indecision.
The longer term consolidation pattern continues. An intermediate trough above 1100 would be a bullish sign, while a peak below 1100 would be bearish.
The longer term consolidation pattern continues. An intermediate trough above 1100 would be a bullish sign, while a peak below 1100 would be bearish.
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Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is testing support at 4.00%, briefly dipping below the level before recovering. Market consensus (after the Fed increased rates by 0.25% on Tuesday) appears to be that future rates increases will be gradual.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) eased to 2.4%.
Differentials below 1.0% are long-term bear signals.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is testing support at 4.00%, briefly dipping below the level before recovering. Market consensus (after the Fed increased rates by 0.25% on Tuesday) appears to be that future rates increases will be gradual.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) eased to 2.4%.
Differentials below 1.0% are long-term bear signals.
Gold
New York: Spot gold eased slightly to $407.60.
Price is consolidating above support at $400, establishing a base for further gains.
New York: Spot gold eased slightly to $407.60.
Price is consolidating above support at $400, establishing a base for further gains.
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ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries has encountered profit-taking towards the end of the week. Strong volume and a close near the low indicate that sellers are in control. The correction may test the first level of support at 3600.
The All Ordinaries has encountered profit-taking towards the end of the week. Strong volume and a close near the low indicate that sellers are in control. The correction may test the first level of support at 3600.
Twiggs Money Flow has completed a double bottom, and is
strengthening.
However, in the longer term, expect a re-test of support at 3450.
However, in the longer term, expect a re-test of support at 3450.
Incredible Charts - new Securities
Toolbar
Incredible Charts version 4.0.3.700 incorporates a new securities toolbar, enabling you to chart securities without loading a securities exchange.
Incredible Charts version 4.0.3.700 incorporates a new securities toolbar, enabling you to chart securities without loading a securities exchange.
- Enter the security symbol
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Handy Hint
If you edit codes within the text box, do not drag your mouse pointer back onto the chart while editing, keep it in the text box. Otherwise you will reactivate the normal keyboard shortcut keys (e.g. F opens the File Menu). |
- Click the Load Security button
or hit the Enter key.
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Use the following format to enter a
security: SYMBOL_EXCHANGECODE (e.g. bhp_ax = BHP Billiton Limited, Australia ) Where EXCHANGECODE is as follows:
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- You can also use the drop-down list to select recently loaded securities.
Default Exchange
If you set a default exchange, you will not need to enter EXCHANGECODEs for securities from that exchange.
For example, if Australia is set as the Default Exchange, type bhp for BHP Billiton Limited, instead of bhp_ax.
To set a default exchange: right-click the
button and select an exchange;
If you set a default exchange, you will not need to enter EXCHANGECODEs for securities from that exchange.
For example, if Australia is set as the Default Exchange, type bhp for BHP Billiton Limited, instead of bhp_ax.
To set a default exchange: right-click the
button and select an exchange;
Or select Securities >> Set Default
Exchange from the chart menu.
About
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
Rudyard Kipling: IF
But make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
Rudyard Kipling: IF
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.