USA
The Dow Industrial Average shows a weak close on Friday on higher volume, signaling a possible re-test of support at 10000. A successful test of support would be a bullish sign. However, low recent volume indicates a lack of commitment from buyers.
The Dow Industrial Average shows a weak close on Friday on higher volume, signaling a possible re-test of support at 10000. A successful test of support would be a bullish sign. However, low recent volume indicates a lack of commitment from buyers.
In the longer term, the 2004 consolidation may result in either
an upward or downward breakout. Confirmation would come from a
pull-back that respects support at 10500, or resistance at 10000,
respectively.
Twiggs Money Flow is strengthening.
Twiggs Money Flow is strengthening.
The Nasdaq Composite primary trend is headed downward. The
latest rally is on low volume and appears unlikely to break
resistance at 1900.
Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) is weak.
Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) is weak.
Declining volume on the S&P 500 signals a lack of
commitment from buyers. With low volume on Friday's reversal,
there is no indication that the rally will immediately fail, but
the odds are against a successful penetration of resistance at
1150.
Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) has improved, crossing to above the signal line.
Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) has improved, crossing to above the signal line.
NYSE Bullish Percent
The NYSE Bullish Percent Index has recovered to 57.32% but the signal is still bearish.
The NYSE Bullish Percent Index has recovered to 57.32% but the signal is still bearish.
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Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.30% on the strength of a moderate rise in August payroll figures. Market expectations are for a quarter per cent rise at the Fed's September 21 meeting.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) recovered to 2.7%.
Low differentials (below 1.0%) are generally bear signals.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.30% on the strength of a moderate rise in August payroll figures. Market expectations are for a quarter per cent rise at the Fed's September 21 meeting.
The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) recovered to 2.7%.
Low differentials (below 1.0%) are generally bear signals.
Gold
New York: Spot gold retreated to close the week at $400.00.
Marginal new highs (May to August) indicate a lack of commitment from buyers.
New York: Spot gold retreated to close the week at $400.00.
Marginal new highs (May to August) indicate a lack of commitment from buyers.
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ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries briefly tested 3600 before retreating Friday [c] on lighter volume. Short pull-backs at [a] and [b] signal buyers commitment. We cannot, however, rule out another test of support at 3550: Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) still appears weak, having so far failed to cross above the signal line.
The All Ordinaries briefly tested 3600 before retreating Friday [c] on lighter volume. Short pull-backs at [a] and [b] signal buyers commitment. We cannot, however, rule out another test of support at 3550: Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) still appears weak, having so far failed to cross above the signal line.
The monthly chart below gives a 20-year
perspective of the All Ords (with apologies to readers who prefer
long-term charts in log scale - it just makes recent swings
difficult to read). We have experienced a strong rally since
testing support at 2800 in March 03. The rally may continue for
many months but at some point we can expect a re-test of support
at the previous highs of [E] and [F]; in a similar fashion to
corrections [C] and [D] testing support
at the highs of [A] and [B].
Incredible Charts - new Test
Version
For those who are interested in upcoming additions to the software, a new test version is available for download at https://www.incrediblecharts.com/free-charting_software/free_download.php.
New Securities Toolbar
Incredible Charts version 4.0.3.670 incorporates a new securities toolbar. You are able to chart a security, without the exchange being loaded on the securities menu.
For those who are interested in upcoming additions to the software, a new test version is available for download at https://www.incrediblecharts.com/free-charting_software/free_download.php.
New Securities Toolbar
Incredible Charts version 4.0.3.670 incorporates a new securities toolbar. You are able to chart a security, without the exchange being loaded on the securities menu.
- Enter the security symbol
- Click the Load Security button
or hit the Enter key.
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Use the following format to enter a
security: SYMBOL_EXCHANGECODE (e.g. bhp_ax = BHP Billiton Limited, Australia ) Where EXCHANGECODE is as follows:
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- You can also use the drop-down list
to select recently loaded securities.
Default Exchange
You will not need to enter an EXCHANGECODE, in the input box, for the default exchange.
For example, if Australia is set as the Default Exchange, you need not type bhp_ax to load BHP Billiton Limited:
merely type bhp and ENTER.
To set a Default Exchange, either:
You will not need to enter an EXCHANGECODE, in the input box, for the default exchange.
For example, if Australia is set as the Default Exchange, you need not type bhp_ax to load BHP Billiton Limited:
merely type bhp and ENTER.
To set a Default Exchange, either:
- Select Securities >> Set Default Exchange from the chart menu; or
-
Right-click the new Load Security
button
Watchlist Correction
The new version also corrects a watchlist scrolling error that occurred with de-listed securities: the scroll no longer reverts to the first security on the watchlist.
Live Update
The test version will be released as a live update towards the end of the month.
The new version also corrects a watchlist scrolling error that occurred with de-listed securities: the scroll no longer reverts to the first security on the watchlist.
Live Update
The test version will be released as a live update towards the end of the month.
About
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
Become more humble as the market goes your
way.
~ Bernard Baruch
~ Bernard Baruch
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.