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Trading Diary
February 2, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average closed almost unchanged at 10499, after testing support and resistance on low volume. The consolidation continues. A fall below Thursday's low of 10417 would signal a re-test of support at 10000.



Despite the down-turn, Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal accumulation. 
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 would signal reversal.


The Nasdaq Composite continues to consolidate, closing down slightly at 2063 on lower volume. 
The intermediate trend is uncertain. Initial support is at 2000, resistance at 2300. A fall below Thursday's low of 2041 will signal the start of a down-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 also continues to consolidate, retreating to close at 1135. Strong volume and a weak close signal selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is up, with resistance overhead at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1155. Bearish below Thursday's low of 1122.


The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 would signal reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal accumulation.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1155.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is down at 84.80%.


Manufacturing up
The ISM manufacturing index recorded a slight rise to 63.6 in January. A reading above 50 signals expansion. (more)


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes eased higher to 4.151%. The weak close is a bullish sign.
The intermediate trend is up and likely to re-test resistance levels at 4.4% to 4.5%.
The primary trend is up. A close below the September low of 3.93% would signal reversal.





Gold
New York (13.00): Spot gold plunged to 394 before recovering to $399.20, just below resistance at 400.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries is consolidating at the current level, closing at 3287 on lower volume. 
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below 3271 would signal a down-trend, with a likely test of support at 3160.
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3271 (Thursday's low).



Twiggs Money Flow (100) is headed for a test of its 3-month support level.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 (the October 1 low) would signal reversal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.





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Colin Twiggs


Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition
there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.

~ George Soros




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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.