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Trading Diary
January 30, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average has consolidated over the last 2 days,
closing at 10488. Low volume with a "hammer" close signals
an absence of selling pressure.
A fall below Thursday's low of 10417 would signal a re-test of support at 10000.
A fall below Thursday's low of 10417 would signal a re-test of support at 10000.
Despite the down-turn, Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to
signal accumulation.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 would signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 would signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite consolidated after the recent down-thrust,
closing at 2066. Thursday's weak close and big volume signaled
buying pressure, but Friday's
inside day on lower volume increases the chances of a
continuation.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. Initial support is at 2000, resistance at 2300.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. Initial support is at 2000, resistance at 2300.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 consolidated with an inside day after a 2-day
correction, closing at 1131. Strong volume and a narrow range
signal pressure from both buyers and sellers.
The intermediate trend is up, with resistance overhead at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1155.
The intermediate trend is up, with resistance overhead at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1155.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 would signal
reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) may have turned down but continues to signal accumulation.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1155.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) may have turned down but continues to signal accumulation.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1155.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator retreated
to 84.59%. More than 80% of NYSE stocks are in an up-trend, the
highest level in 10 years.
Consumer confidence up
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 103.8, from 92.6 in December. (more)
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 103.8, from 92.6 in December. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes retraced to 4.138%.
The intermediate trend is up and likely to re-test resistance levels at 4.4% to 4.5%.
The primary trend is up. A close below the September low of 3.93% would signal reversal.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes retraced to 4.138%.
The intermediate trend is up and likely to re-test resistance levels at 4.4% to 4.5%.
The primary trend is up. A close below the September low of 3.93% would signal reversal.
The
yield differential (10-year T-notes compared to 13-week
T-bills) is a healthy 3.25%.
Gold
New York (13.00): Spot gold tested support at 400 before recovering to $402.00.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
New York (13.00): Spot gold tested support at 400 before recovering to $402.00.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
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ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries attempted a rally after the fast 3-day
down-trend, but selling pressure forced a weak close at 3283 on
strong volume. The intermediate trend is now uncertain.
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3293 (Jan.12 low).
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3293 (Jan.12 low).
On the 3-year chart, the false break above 3320, followed by a
fast down-trend, is a bearish sign. We are likely to witness a
re-test of support at 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) is headed for a test of its 3-month support level.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 (the October 1 low) would signal reversal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) is headed for a test of its 3-month support level.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 (the October 1 low) would signal reversal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Sector Analysis
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 3 (RS is level)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is level).
- Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 3* (RS is rising)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
Financial-x-Property Trusts [XXJ]* has made two false
breaks through resistance at the top of the consolidation
pattern. Narrow consolidation just below resistance, however, is
still a bullish pattern. Relative Strength (price ratio: xjo) is
edging upward. If there is a further breakout, it would be
prudent to wait for a pull-back that respects the new support
level.
Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) fell to 25 stocks, from 50 a week earlier. The highest reading was 131 on April 11, 2003 and the lowest, 8 on March 14, 2003. Prominent sectors are:
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) fell to 25 stocks, from 50 a week earlier. The highest reading was 131 on April 11, 2003 and the lowest, 8 on March 14, 2003. Prominent sectors are:
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (4)
About
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
With things - some go forward, others
follow;
Some are hot, others cold;
Some are firm and strong, others submissive and weak.
Some rise up while others fall down.
Therefore the Sage:
Rejects the extreme, the excessive, and the extravagant.
~ Lao Tse: Te-Tao Ching
Some are hot, others cold;
Some are firm and strong, others submissive and weak.
Some rise up while others fall down.
Therefore the Sage:
Rejects the extreme, the excessive, and the extravagant.
~ Lao Tse: Te-Tao Ching
Stock Screens: Indexes
Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P
500 have been added to the list of Indexes.
If you screen US stocks you can now restrict your search to
components of either of these indexes.
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.