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Trading Diary
January 26, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average rallied strongly to close at 10702, breaking through resistance. Lower volume signals buyer wariness and there may be a pull-back within the next few days, to test the new 10600 support level. If successful, we are likely to see a rally to resistance at 11350.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal strong accumulation. 
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 would signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite rallied above support at 2100, closing at 2153. Lower volume signals buyer wariness. 
The intermediate trend is up. Momentum is increasing, with little or no overlap between troughs and previous peaks.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal strong accumulation.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 would signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 rallied to close up 14 points at 1155. Lower volume signals buyer wariness.
The intermediate trend is up, with resistance overhead at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1150.


The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1136 (from January 23).
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is almost unchanged at 86.24%.


Fed unlikely to move
The Federal Reserve Board is expected to leave rates unchanged at this week's meeting. (more)


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes followed through to close at 4.14%, completing a double bottom reversal. A re-test of resistance at 4.4% to 4.5% is likely.
The primary trend is up. A close below the September low of 3.93% would signal a reversal.





Gold
New York (20.39): Spot gold fell to $403.20.
The intermediate trend has reversed downwards and is likely to test support at 400.
The primary trend is up.








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Colin Twiggs


Errors using inadequate data are much less
than those using no data at all.

~ Charles Babbage, English mathematician (1792 - 1871).




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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.