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Trading Diary
January 15, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow Industrial Average rallied to test resistance at 10600, but then retreated to close at 10553. Higher volume and a weak close signal selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation in a narrow range below major resistance is a bullish sign (during an up-trend). A fall below 10367 would be bearish, signaling a re-test of support levels.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.


The Nasdaq Composite closed at 2109, consolidating at the upper border of resistance, a bullish sign (during an up-trend). Strong volume and a narrow body signal increased opposition from buyers and sellers. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


The S&P 500 encountered resistance at the recent high, closing at 1132 on strong volume. 
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175. A fall below 1115 (Tuesday's low) would be bearish.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1132 (last Thursday's high). Bearish below 1115.

The primary trend is up. A fall below 1000 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator fell to 85.08% (January 15).

$58 billion bank deal
JP Morgan Chase agrees to buy Bank One for $58 billion.

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes continues to fall, closing at 3.97%, a bearish sign.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal - a bearish sign for US stocks.

New York (16.43): Spot gold fell sharply to $408.50, below support at 415.
The intermediate trend is up. We are likely to see a test of support at 400.
The primary trend is up.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries continued to consolidate between 3320 and 3293, testing resistance before closing back at 3312. Lower volume and a weak close signal a lack of enthusiasm from buyers.

The intermediate trend is up. The consolidation pattern, in a narrow range below resistance, is a bullish sign. A fall below 3293 would signal a re-test of support at 3160.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed above.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.

In the longer-term, the All Ords has consolidated between 3160 and 3320 after a fast up-trend. A break through resistance will signal a re-test of major resistance at 3425 to 3440. 
The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below support at 3160 (Oct 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3293.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

Hills Industries [HIL]
HIL has formed a consolidation pattern, roughly in the shape of a bearish descending triangle, after a lengthy up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (100) is falling, signaling strong distribution.

Support has formed at 3.60. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is creeping lower but has yet to make a decisive break below the previous support level.

A break below 3.60 would be bearish. A subsequent peak below 3.60 would be a strong bear signal.

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Colin Twiggs whole life has always been down to the fact that when you have a setback, you don't call that a loss.
"Lose" means when you don't get back up.
A "setback" means that, hey, something happened, something that you did wrong and then you're corrected.
Now you mend it back together. Now it's stronger than it was the first time,
and you know you're going through here because of the experience that you're gonna have behind you.

~ Evander Holyfield
(talking about day trading of course)

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